Restless Rider the key in Fleur de Lis Pick 4 and Churchill's late Pick 4

Profile Picture: Vance Hanson

November 24th, 2018

Saturday's Golden Rod (G2) and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs are part of the inaugural Fleur de Lis Pick 4 and Churchill's own Late Pick 4, both of which are intriguing sequences. Here's how we'll be playing both wagers, starting with the cross-track Fleur de Lis Pick 4

Fleur de Lis Pic 4:

Fair Grounds Race 7 (4:35 p.m. EST)

#3 BRING THE DOUGH (7-2) a non-factor in two starts in New York, goes first time for Asmussen here and should enjoy the class relief. #8 TACKETT (3-1) turned in a solid debut at Laurel and hails from the hot Mike Stidham barn. Second dam Canadian champion Gold Strike. #9 AFLEET MOMENT (6-1) well supported in two outings yet disappointed badly in both. Caught slop first out and bumped leaving the gate trying grass. Turnaround with blinkers here?

Churchill Downs Race 8 (Golden Rod) (4:57 p.m. EST)

This race also kicks off the late Pick 4 at Churchill, and Alcibiades (G1) winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) runner-up #5 RESTLESS RIDER (7-5) is our key in both wagers. Legit Kentucky Oaks (G1) prospect for Kenny McPeek.

Fair Grounds Race 9 (5:35 p.m. EST)

#1 GREAT WIDE OPEN (7-2) and #3 TWENTY FOUR SEVEN (4-1) far exceeded expectations in recent stakes outings, the former finishing second in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at 81-1 and the latter not beaten by much in the Arlington H. (G3) and Arlington Million (G1). Both have won over this course previously. #4 MASTER MERION (5-1) has been facing the likes of Next Shares (too) and Big Changes of late, and also merits a look here.

Churchill Downs Race 11 (Kentucky Jockey Club (5:56 p.m. EST)

KNICKS GO perhaps the best horse, but doesn't look nearly as attractive at shorts odds as he did at monster prices in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). #1 SIGNALMAN (5-2), second in the Keeneland race and third in the Juvenile, looks just as solid if he can work out the trip. #12 KING FOR A DAY (8-1) a troubled third behind Champagne (G1) winner Complexity and recent Churchill scorer Harvey Wallbanger in his debut, rebounded nicely to graduate at Belmont after setting contested pace. Pletcher has won this twice before. #2 TRACKSMITH (20-1) an interesting longshot for Joe Sharp. Narrowly missed in a stakes at Kentucky Downs two back, and descendent of top sprinter Xtra Heat bred to love this dirt as he's by Street Sense.

Here's the 50-cent Fleur de Lis ticket:

3,8,9 with 5 with 1,3,4 with 1,2,12 = $13.50

We'll use the same horses from the Golden Rod and KJC in the late Pick 4 at Churchill. As far as the other two races...

Race 10

#1 SO ALIVE (5-2) was just up to win on debut at Keeneland while navigating his way between rivals over a muddy track and big threat right back with added ground. #6 MOONSTER (10-1) a course and distance maiden winner here in September has ugly form otherwise. Capable of better.

Race 12

#11 BUNDIBUNAN (8-1) made a nice rally in Keeneland debut after breaking slow and lagging far behind for awhile. #6 LOCALLY OWNED (3-1) a logical inclusion with a pair of solid tries to start his career. #2 DERBY DATE (8-1) and #10 WAR OF WILL (5-2) both take significant drops in class.

Here's the 50-cent ticket:

5 with 1,6 with 1,2,12 with 2,6,10,11 = $12.