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Homeracing

Salvatore's Preakness betting strategy

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TwinSpires Staff

May 21st, 2016

by DOUG SALVATORE

Recent history suggests that Nyquist will be extremely tough to beat in the Preakness. He demonstrated his great tactical speed and tractability after breaking sharp in the Kentucky Derby and kindly settling in second-position behind need-the-lead front-runner Danzing Candy. When tactical speed types win the Kentucky Derby, they've performed sensationally well in the Preakness next-out. Indeed, of the last eleven horses who were never positioned more than five lengths off of the lead and went on to win the Derby, eight of them returned to win the Preakness. One was second, one was third, and the other was Barbaro.

Nyquist definitely has recent history in his corner, however, Exaggerator absolutely stands out in this race from a nuts and bolts handicapping standpoint. This edition of the Preakness is over-flowing with front-end speed types who have virtually no chance of a top three finish unless they're able to get loose on the lead. The pace has to be hot and thoroughly contested -- and this time Nyquist will likely get his face dirty from that inside draw. What's more, the Pimlico track surface figures to play more like the Florida Derby surface (wet and tiring) than the Kentucky Derby surface (lightning fast and easy to get over)

I am hoping for a pace meltdown in this year’s Preakness and I'll bet the race accordingly. Exaggerator is the most proven wet-track horse in the field and he's as likely as anyone to benefit from the expected pace meltdown. Few know their way around Pimlico as well as Kent Desormeaux, as he rode brilliantly at this track early in his career.

Bet Exaggerator to win and put him on top in all exotics with Lani, Cherry Wine, and Fellowship in the underneath slots.

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