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Homeracing

Santa Anita Stats

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Derek Simon

December 28th, 2012



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In terms of the Santa Anita speed “bias” (I’ve grown to hate that word due to its widespread overuse), below are my
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As you can see, the advantage of early speed on the dirt is pronounced, with over a third of those races won in gate-to-wire fashion — despite the fact that the average winning early speed ration (ESR) is healthy in both cases.

Hence, it should come as no surprise that shippers from other speed-favoring venues do very well at the Arcadia, Cal. strip. Among the tracks with the better ROIs are:

Belmont Park (+61%)
Calder/Gulfstream Park (+141%)
Remington Park (+400%)
Saratoga (+313%)

Conversely, when horses ship to Santa Anita from tracks that favor stretch runners, the results, like the Swallows of San Juan Capistrano, go south for the winter:

Churchill Downs (-52%)
Del Mar (-34%)
Keeneland (-45%)

So, when looking for winners at Santa Anita this winter, insist on horses that can be in the mix early. If recent history is any guide, many of those horses will be around late as well.

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