Homeracing

Saratoga Scouting Report: Kentucky Horses for Sunday, July 28

Profile Picture: Joe Kristufek

July 27th, 2019

With Churchill Downs coming off perhaps their strongest spring meet in history, the horses based in Kentucky should perform even better than they have in years past. Chances are, in many cases, they won't get the respect they deserve. There is value to be had. That's what I'm here for. For the entirety of the Saratoga meet, I will provide "scouting reports" for the Kentucky-based horses – good, bad and indifferent. Horses are listed in order of preference, with a short comment playability notation in the wrap. Race 2 #8 Laser Loop Hopes were high following a game win over $50K (N2L) claimers at Keeneland in April, but a pair of follow-up runs at Churchill were very average. Two back over a one-turn mile, he broke three lengths slow and then raced evenly. Cut back to six furlongs and dropped in class last out, he enjoyed a ground saving trip behind a hot pace, but failed to make an impact. That did turn out to be a key race moving forward. Comment: This one could go either way. He runs for less than half of the recent claim price here, but the speed figures fit favorably. The barn has held their own this meet. Tough call. Race 3 #3 Fooch In his first race back off a seven-week layoff, he was bet down to 2-1 favoritism against seven rivals. With the rail out 22 feet, the turf course slightly favored speed that day, and this guy was up and on the pace while three-wide. He loomed boldly on the turn but evened out late to finish fourth in what was an average race for the level. Comment: Looks the best on paper and he might be a defined favorite. He can win but I don't think he's as good as he might appear on paper. I'd be willing to oppose. #4 Our Stormin Norman On the bench more than he's been in the barn in recent years, this five-year-old gelding showed some signs off life off an 11-month layoff last time out. Urged to a stalking position to the pocket over a racetrack that slightly favored speed, he had aim on the eventual front running winner last, but won the place battle gamely instead. Comment: He posted a pair of useful works since that promising run and does have some turf influences in the pedigree. Looks like a viable alternative to the likely favorite and thus very useable for multi-race purposes. Race 6 #2 Cowboy Rhythm A creditable third over a sloppy two turns two starts back, his chances were compromised in his most recent start. Off four lengths slow in that one-turn mile event, he was stuck in tight between horses and shuffled back. Chased the controlled pace of the gate-to-wire winner, he failed to make an impact thereafter. Comment: Hasn't run in more than two months and has only a pair of half-mile works leading up to this. Fits with his A-game, which makes him tough to toss. Race 7 #1 Confessing Bet down to 3-1 in an "off the turf" race in her debut, she lost six lengths at the start and failed to make an impact in the slop thereafter. Her follow-up run on grass was much better. The pace was hot and the field was strung out and this gal did enjoy a clear run on the rail. She finished with energy to be third but failed to threaten the top pair. Comment: Enjoyed the run of the race last out and was third best in an average race for the level. She's learning and improving. Tough not to use but even more difficult to lean on. #9 Aymara Debuted around two turns on turf, the surface she was bred to run on, at Gulfstream but then ran back in a dirt sprint at Churchill. She added blinkers that day and surprisingly was bet down to 5-2 favoritism again 10 foes. She stalked a fast pace over a racetrack that slightly favored speed, was hung seven-wide on the turn and race evenly to the wire behind a legit winner. Comment: There are reasons to think that she has some promise, but it also looks like she might need the race. Can't argue with using her, but… Race 10 #1 Bridled Temper A career hanger, she finished a belated sixth off the bench as the 2-1 favorite two starts back, and then lost a race she could have easily won last time out. In what was a very average race for the level, she raced in the clear near the back behind a fast pace, she made a steady advance, was hung seven-wide on the turn, had aim late, led, and then hung. Comment: She almost always runs well but finds a way to lose. The pedigree suggests that the added distance may be just what the doctor ordered, but this looks like a tough spot. Would appear to be more of an underneath type here. Race 11 #11 Lemniscate Cutting back in distance for his first start back off a three-month layoff, he outperformed his 10-1 odds. He broke alertly and raced three-wide behind a fast pace, had aim late, ran on to be second behind the favored Super Comet and then galloped out best. Comment: He's won sprinting on dirt and routing on turf, so I'm not sure what his best game is. You have to admire his versatility, and he did run big off the bench last out. Tough to envision him winning this, but he could sneak into the gimmicks at a price. #3 Super Comet Made a very favorable impression in his career debut, stalking an even pace while four-wide before blitzing his foes on the turn and drawing off to an authoritative win. He had to work a little harder in his follow-up start. He enjoyed a clear, spying trip behind a fast pace, was nudged on the turn, had aim late and wore down a stubborn foe. Comment: Ran well to win both of his starts, but this is a much, much tougher task. Appears to be more of an underneath type and would be a stretch to use in multi-race wagers. #9 Bourbon Calling Dropped in for a $75,000 maiden claiming tag on May 12, he was caught in tight at the rail while tugging into a fast pace. He made a quick move while hung six-wide on the turn, led late and carried on. In the follow-up start, also against older foes, he lost three lengths at the start but enjoyed a dream run at the rail thereafter, and finished third best. In tight between horses early in his most recent start, he raced three-wide behind a contested pace, was loaded on the turn, rallied off heels, and got up in time. Comment: The owners are certainly proud to run this guy in a stakes at Saratoga, but he appears to be a bit outclassed. That being said, there should be a hot pace up front, so he could easily sneak his way into the gimmicks at a price. #4 Classy John Very reluctant to load the starting gate in his May 27 start, he was caught in very tight between horses early, made a bid and then flattened in what was a very deep race for the level. Adding blinkers for the first time last out, he set a fast pace while solo and dug in late, but he simply couldn't go with the top pair in the final furlong. Comment: Louisiana-bred shocked the world when he broke his maiden at first asking last summer at Saratoga. He appears to be back in top form and we know he likes the track, but this is a tough ask. Looks like an easy pass.   (c) Coglianese Photography
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