Scratching into Mondialiste to win the Arlington Million

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Ed DeRosa

August 12th, 2016

The Arlington Million is the marquee race of the Arlington International Racecourse meeting, and on Saturday, August 13, it’s also the most important race of the day from a wagering perspective because it anchors all the guaranteed pools: all-stakes Pick 5, all-Festival Pick 4, and all-Grade 1 Pick 3.

For FREE Ultimate Past Performances of the Arlington Million, click here.

It’s a competitive 12-horse field following the scratch of Decorated Knight with the European Tryster favored and the first- and third-place finishers from the United Nations—World Approval and Wake Forest, respectively—as the projected second and third choices on Joe Kristufek’s morning line.

But I don’t like any of those horses. I think Tryster will be overbet as “the” Euro, and the United Nations was a fine race, but it will be overvalued given its Grade 1absent the best U.S.-based turf horse in training Flintshire (who beat World Approval in the Manhattan at Belmont).

Decorated Knight was my pick before the afore-referenced scratch, but I'll stick with the Euro-loving vibe and elevate Mondialiste to my top pick. Last year's Woodbine Mile winner and Breeders' Cup Turf runner-up had a tough start to his six-year-old campaign when unplaced and beaten a combined 29 1/4 lengths by the likes of A Shin Hikari and Tepin, but he took a step in the right direction on a class drop to a Group 2 when 2nd beaten less than a length by Time Test in the York Stakes.


A return to form and pace to run at makes him worth a look in the 5-to-1 range.

Speaking of World Approval and Wake Forest, I’d almost have to use all U.S.-based horses if I use any of them because their Speed Ratings are all similar. It’s tough for me to make a case for any of them over another. Every horse who ran in America last out ran a Speed Rating between 92-99.

I'll bet that one of the premier international runners (Tryster being the other one) will run at least a 100, and Mondialiste is the better bet at the projected prices.