Scully: Handicapping Friday’s Late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park
Friday’s Pick 4 at Gulfstream kicks off in Race 7, one of three turf races in the sequence, and the $12,500 claiming event has a heavy favorite that I’m against.
Here are my thoughts on the Pick 4 races:
#11 Gioelli drops in for a $12,500 claiming tag for Todd Pletcher, but the speedy mare won’t get an easy trip from her outside post with other speed entered. Her affinity for two turns is questionable as well, and the 5-year-old has lost ground in the stretch in all nine starts. The 6-5 morning line favorite will be omitted from my ticket.
I will spread with #2 Get Rewarded, who can show more after breaking badly last time; #3 Midnight Gem, who fits at this level on the switchback to turf for new connections; #6 Magic River, who just missed last time after a poor start; front-running #8 Zodiac Princess; and #12 Whiskarita; who just missed against similar two back and makes her third start off the layoff.
#8 Four Graces exits a front-running maiden tally in which she caught a breather on the far turn. She will probably have to switch to ratings tactics given today’s pace scenario, and could prove vulnerable at short odds. I will try to beat her.
#3 Sweet Mia is inside speed and cuts back to a one-turn mile after an even third after a less-than-favorable trip. She opened her racing career with a couple of solid front-running sprint wins at Gulfstream and figures to send with hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione taking over the mount. Her experience could prove beneficial.
#5 Finding Fame rallied to win her debut for Shug McGaughey, registering a respectable 88 Brisnet Speed rating, and the well-bred daughter of Empire Maker could have the right run style in this speed-laden field.
#3 Positive Phil looks tough here in his second start off the claim for Mike Maker (20%). The 4-year-old can put his tactical speed to good use with Joel Rosario. With speed on the outside in the starting gate, #1 Direct Approach may get the right set-up, and the late-running gelding will be included with the probable favorite.
#11 R Man Joe is a logical favorite, a serious threat to lead wire-to-wire, but he has coughed up a clear lead in the stretch the last two starts. I’ll also use #2 Muskoka Storm, who switches back to turf for Mark Casse after a commendable showing on the main track; and #6 Caribbean Storm, who drew a tough rail post last time and is capable of better the second time out for Benjamin Perkins Jr.
50-cent Pick 4 wager
- 2,3,6,8,12 with 3,5 with 1,3 with 2,6,11 ($30)