Scully: Handicapping Sunday’s mandatory Single 6 payout at Churchill Downs
Closing day means a mandatory payout in the Single 6 Jackpot at Churchill Downs, and a pair of scheduled turf races in the sequence have been washed off to an expected wet main track.
Here are my thoughts on the sequence and a recommended 20-cent ticket:
#5 Approved looks ready to graduate for Wayne Catalano, who has come on strong at the end of the spring meet (2-1-1 in last six starts). The 3-year-old didn’t receive the right trip when coming back earlier this year at Oaklawn Park, and Catalano adds blinkers (24% move) and drops his pupil into maiden claiming ranks for the first time. Bred to relish wet conditions, Approved will be forward with Florent Geroux, who retakes the mount after guiding the colt to a solid third-place effort under the Twin Spires in the career debut last November.
I give #9 Seven and Seven a slight edge at a price (10-1 morning line), but will spread with eight runners here.
The surface switch and wet conditions may benefit #3 American Butterfly, who has placed in 3-of-4 starts on off tracks and exits an encouraging second at Churchill for D. Wayne Lukas. Wesley Ward’s entry of #1/1A Cardiac Kitten/Artemus Citylimits, #4 Shared Legacy, and #10 Lonely Private will be added to the ticket.
#1 Top Seed and #2 Gun It merit serious respect in this spot, and I will also use late-running #6 Rated R Superstar and Grade 2 winner #7 Signalman.
#1 Risky Mandate didn’t break sharply from the rail and finished third to Royal Charlotte when making her stakes debut in the Prioress (G2) at Saratoga in late August. The Tom Amoss-trained filly appears to be training forwardly for her return and she’s eligible to take to the wet conditions being a half-sister to Joint Custody, a convincing stakes winner in the mud. I like Risky Mandate’s chances with James Graham.
#4 Golden Star Lady is bred to excel on an off track, and the Candy Ride filly should be prominent from the start for Ward. #1 Magic Motion is intriguing for Bill Mott. Bred to handle mud, the Bernardini filly showed improved speed before weakening last time and could be sent from her innermost post by Martin Garcia. #5 Golden Loch may receive the right setup for her late kick.
20-cent Single 6 Wager
- 5 with 1,2,4,5,7,8,9,10 with 1,3,4,10 with 1,2,6,7 with 1 with 1,4,5 ($76.80)