Scully: Handicapping the Sept. 10 Kentucky Downs All Graded Stakes Pick 5

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September 9th, 2022

Saturday’s dynamite 12-race program at Kentucky Downs concludes with an “All Graded Stakes Pick 5” sequence. A pair of East Coast-based Breeders’ Cup hopefuls, Gufo and Big Invasion, will ship in from New York for Christophe Clement, and I favor their chances in the $1 million Kentucky Turf Cup (G2) and $600,000 Franklin-Simpson S. (G2), respectively.

Here is how I will construct the Pick 5 ticket.

Race 8 – Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf (G3) (4:30 p.m. ET)

#1 Dalika (2-1) and #8 Princess Grace (3-1), the 1-2 finishers in the Aug. 13 Beverly D. (G1) at Churchill Downs, will renew their rivalry in the one-mile turf affair. Princess Grace missed by a half-length last time, but she edged Dalika by the same margin in last year’s Ladies Turf.

Both runners will be used, but I give a slight edge to #9 Stolen Holiday (4-1) following a solid win in the Eatontown (G3) at Monmouth Park. Trained by Shug McGaughey, who already has two wins this meet, the versatile five-year-old mare can win on or up close to the front end, and she figures to receive a good trip with Jose Lezcano in a field lacking pace.

#3 Hendy Woods (9-2), a Kentucky Downs stakes winner, and multiple Woodbine graded stakes winner #4 Lady Speightspeare (8-1) also will be added.

Race 9 – Turf Sprint (G2) (5:10 p.m. ET)

#9 Front Run the Fed (15-1), a head second in this six-furlong event in 2020, is my top choice. A good Colonial Downs sprint turf stakes victor in his June comeback, the stalker didn’t receive the correct trip when fifth in a deep Fourstardave (G1) last time. On the cutback to his preferred distance, the six-year-old should be rolling from off the pace with Lezcano.

#2 Chewing Gum (5-1), #11 Chasing Artie (15-1), and #12 Arrest Me Red (9-5) are also part of the mix.

Race 10 – Kentucky Turf Cup (G2) (5:45 p.m. ET)

Love the two-week turnaround for #8 Gufo (7-5), who appears to be peaking at the right time of the year for Clement following his half-length triumph in the Sword Dancer (G1) at Saratoga. The five-year-old closer relishes the 1 1/2-mile trip and keeps Joel Rosario in the irons.

Race 11 – Mint Ladies Sprint (G3) (6:20 p.m. ET)

#10 Campanelle (8-5) will take some beating following a close third in the Jubilee (G1) at Royal Ascot, but the four-year-old filly missed the break and was upset at short odds when returning from Europe last fall. I will also include #1 Bay Storm (8-1), #3 Jouster (5-1), #9 Star Devine (10-1), and #11 In Good Spirits (6-1).

Race 12 – Franklin-Simpson (G2) (6:55 p.m. ET)

Freshened after a convincing win in the seven-furlong Paradise S. in late May, #6 Big Invasion (8-5) has improved in his last two outings, recording 94 and 98 Brisnet Speed ratings for stylish stakes wins at Saratoga, and the progressing colt will stick to three-year-old competition in this 6 1/2-furlong race. Look for him to keep rolling with Rosario.

50-cent Pick 5: 1,3,4,8,9 with 2,9,11,12 with 8 with 1,3,9,10,11 with 6