Scully: Kentucky Downs Pick 4 play Sept. 8

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September 7th, 2022

Another challenging 10-race program will be offered at Kentucky Downs on Thursday, and I will focus on the Late Pick 4, singling a runner in the finale.

Here are my thoughts on the sequence.

Race 7 (4:48 p.m. ET)

An overflow field of 16 juvenile fillies was entered for the mile maiden special weight affair, and I lack a strong opinion, spreading eight-deep with the 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, and 13.

Race 8 (5:23 p.m. ET)

#6 Encourage (5-1) left a favorable impression when trying turf last time, and the gelding is eligible to finish fastest of all with Brian Hernandez Jr. Connections tried to run stakes-placed #5 Happy Boy Rocket (12-1) on turf last time; he’s eligible to fire at a price switching surfaces today. #7 Penner Ash (8-1) faces a class check following a debut wire-to-wire win at Indiana Downs, but he’s got a chance to fire right back if able to clear early with Rafael Bejarano.

Race 9 – Juvenile Sprint S. (5:57 p.m. ET)

Eight two-year-olds, including a filly, are set for the $500,000 Juvenile Sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs. A hot/contentious pace appears very possible, as five of the contestants are exiting frontrunning performances, and I will give a slight edge to #5 Private Creed (4-1) from off the pace. A debut maiden winner two back, the Steve Asmussen-trained Jimmy Creed colt gained valuable experience when finishing third in the Aug. 18 Skidmore S. at Saratoga last out. Private Creed will be rallying with Joel Rosario.

#2 Sharp Aza Track (7-5) is an imposing presence following a pair of convincing wins to open his career, including a seven-length romp in the July 30 Tyro S. at Monmouth Park, but the speedy colt figures to face more pressure stretching out past five furlongs for the first time. A minor award may be more realistic for #6 Accident (20-1), who has appeal for the vertical exotics at 20-1 on the morning line, but I’ll include the one-run closer given the projected pace scenario.

Race 10 (6:31 p.m. ET)

Fillies and mares will square off over 1 5/16 miles, and #11 Quality Star (7-2) has shown an affinity for longer distances, recording a good second at 1 3/8 miles this spring. The sophomore exits a strong neck second over 8 1/2 furlongs, and she’s kept good company in the last three outings. Quality Star has an edge over her rivals in terms of Brisnet Speed and Class, and I’ll single her to conclude the Late Pick 4.

  • 50-cent Pick 4: 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13 with 5, 6, 7 with 2, 5, 6 with 11 ($36)