Scully’s Breeders’ Cup Saturday betting strategy
It’s a fantastic nine-race sequence of Breeders’ Cup races, and conditions will be fast and firm on a beautiful Saturday afternoon at Keeneland.
My strongest opinion surrounds Monomoy Girl in the Distaff. The morning-line favorite rates as the likeliest winner on the program, and I will single Monomoy Girl on all my multi-race wagers.
Earlier on the program, Sconsin (Filly & Mare Sprint) and War of Will (Dirt Mile) are a couple of longshots of interest.
Here are some quick thoughts on the nine races:
Race 4 -- Filly & Mare Turf Sprint
#5 Sconsin enters on the upswing and reminds me of Shamrock Rose, a late-developing sophomore filly who peaked at Breeders’ Cup time when taking the 2018 edition in last-to-first fashion at 25-1 odds. Sconsin registered triple-digit Brisnet Speed and Late Pace ratings when posting her first stakes win last out, closing impressively to win the Sept. 4 Eight Belles (G2) going away, and the 3-year-old will look to capitalize upon a projected hotly contested pace in the Filly and Mare Sprint.
#9 Bell’s the One is the other late runner I want for my multi-race tickets (Pick 4 starts in Race 4). She is in good form presently for Neil Pessin, and the 4-year-old filly likes Keeneland.
Race 5 – Turf Sprint
#14 Extravagant Kid is my top pick, but it’s a wide-open edition of the Turf Sprint. Along with Extravagant Kid, who should appreciate getting away from the rail post following a strong second in the Oct. 3 Woodford (G2) at Keeneland, I will use #3 Imprimis, #6 Glass Slippers, #7 Leinster, #8 Oleksandra, and #10 Bombard.
Race 6 – Dirt Mile
#4 War of Will is eligible to thrive returning to the main track in the Dirt Mile. A Grade 1 turf winner two starts back, the War Front colt showed high class on dirt last season when easily scoring in the Preakness (G1). The Mark Casse-trained colt has trained forwardly over the main track the last couple of months, and War of Will owns plenty of natural speed. He’s eligible to receive a favorable trip just off the speed.
#5 Knicks Go must be caught as the probable pacesetter. If the 4-year-old can avoid a regression off a monstrous allowance tally at Keeneland on Oct. 4, registering a 110 Speed rating for the 10-length decision, Knicks Go will be dangerous with Joel Rosario. #3 Silver Dust and #6 Mr. Money also will be added to some plays (Pick 4 starts in Race 6).
Race 7 – Filly and Mare Turf
#6 Rushing Fall is the one to beat. A six-time Grade 1 winner, including the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) at Del Mar, the 5-year-old mare has posted five graded stakes victories on Keeneland’s turf. The Chad Brown trainee appears poised for her best if she handles the 1 3/16-mile trip.
#3 Peaceful and #14 Cayenne Pepper are the two others I want for multi-race tickets.
Race 8 – Sprint
The Sprint kicks off the Late Pick 5, and I will use four runners for my multi-race purposes. #8 Firenze Fire receives top billing following his sharp score in the Vosburgh (G1) at Belmont Park. #2 C Z Rocket, #6 Frank’s Rockette, and #11 Diamond Oops are also in the mix.
Race 9 – Mile
I favor a pair of 3-year-olds from overseas in the 14-horse Mile. Irish 2,000 Guineas (G1) victor #4 Siskin (12-1 morning line) is appealing from a value perspective, and English 2,000 Guineas (G1) winner #2 Kameko also will be used prominently.
The Late Pick 4 begins in the Mile, and #1 Circus Maximus, #5 Digital Age, #11 Ivar, and #14 Raging Bull will be added to the ticket.
Race 10 – Distaff
#10 Monomoy Girl thrived over Keeneland’s main track when posting a runaway win in the 2018 Ashland (G1), and the 2018 Distaff winner appears set for her best.
Race 11 – Turf
#6 Lord North did not handle soft ground last time, but the multiple Group 1 winner should appreciate the conditions Saturday. The John Gosden-trained gelding rates a slight edge with Frankie Dettori. A pair of classy females, #2 Magical and #3 Tarnawa, will be included, as well.
Race 12 – Classic
Two-deep in the Classic with #2 Tiz the Law and #4 Tom’s d’Etat.
Breeders’ Cup Saturday Wagers
I have allocated a $500 bankroll for the 14 Breeders’ Cup races. After wagering $100 on Friday, the remaining $400 will be focused primarily on multi-race bets.
Filly and Mare Sprint:
- $20 Win 5
- $10 Exacta Box: 5-9 ($20)
- $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: 5,9 with all with 5,9 ($14)
- $.50 Pick 4: 5,9 with 3,6,7,8,10,14 with 4,6 with 3,6,14 ($36)
- $1 Pick 3: 3,6,7,8,10,14 with 3,4,5,6 with 6 ($24)
- $20 Win: 4
- $10 Exacta Box: 4-5 ($20)
- $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: 4 with 3,5,6 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($24)
- $.50 Pick 4: 4,5 with 3,6,14 with 2,6,8,11 with 2,4 ($24)
- $.50-cent Pick 5: 2,6,8,11 with 1,2,4,5,11,14 with 10 with 2,3,6 with 2,4 ($72)
- $1 Pick 3: 2,6,8,11 with 1,2,4,5,11,14 with 10 ($24)
- $.50 Pick 4: 1,2,4,5,11,14 with 10 with 2,3,6 with 2,4 ($18)
- $1 Pick 3: 2,4 with 10 with all ($20)
- $1 Pick 3: 1,2,4,5,11,14 with 10 with 2,3,6 ($18)
- $1 Pick 3: 10 with all with 2,4 ($20)
- $1 Pick 3: 10 with 2,3,6 with all ($30)