Scully’s Churchill Downs signature plays for Sept. 2

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September 1st, 2020

Live racing continues on Kentucky Derby week with a 10-race program Wednesday. Here are some thoughts on the program:

Look forward to playing: #11 Beyond Gone (7-2 morning line) catches a field lacking pace and should be prominent from the start on the class drop. I will build some early multi-race tickets around the front-runner, and play Beyond Gone to win if his odds don’t drop too much from the morning line.

Live longshot: #3 Lord Dragon (15-1) in 8th race. The expected heavy favorite is making first start since November and doesn’t own the top Brisnet Speed rating in field. That distinction goes to Lord Dragon, who posted a 103 number romping by 5 1/4 lengths over allowance foes at Lone Star Park last out. Claimed from a four-length win under the Twin Spires in early June, the 4-year-old gelding has run big in the last two outings for the Diodoro barn and is a candidate to carry his form forward at this level.

Favorite against: #7 Break Even (8-5) in 9th race. Led wire-to-wire in lone turf appearance, but she’ll likely be pressing the pace given the serious speed to her inside. Not keen on her last performance, coughing up a clear lead in the stretch of the May 30 Winning Colors (G3), and she finished off the board last time she didn’t make the early lead.