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Homeracing

Searching for Value in the 2022 Belmont Oaks

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

July 8th, 2022

A total of 10 sophomore fillies will run 1 1/4 miles over the Belmont inner turf in Saturday’s $700,000 Belmont Oaks (G1). The well-matched field pits five European invaders against a handful of U.S.-based ladies in a most fascinating affair. Conditioner Chad Brown has saddled five previous winners of the race and has a strong hand with a trio of live contenders for the tilt on Saturday.

My top pick is #5 Consumer Spending (5-1), and she presents solid value at her morning-line price. The sharp daughter of More Than Ready was a stakes-winning juvenile prior to capping her two-year-old season with a good try in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) when missing by just 1 3/4 lengths. Gray Kentucky-bred is 2-for-2 this campaign, led by a facile score in the Wonder Again S. (G2) locally last time out.

Consumer Spending has earned triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace figures in both of her 2022 endeavors, which tells me that the move to 10 furlongs will not pose a problem for her on Saturday. The $200,000 yearling purchase can run on any kind of ground and would move forward even more if the lawn had some moisture in it on this occasion. She will be appearing on the scene at the head of the stretch with Manny Franco retaining the mount.

Godolphin’s #4 With the Moonlight (6-1) didn’t handle the course at Epsom in the Epsom Oaks (G1) most recently but will improve a good deal while making her U.S. debut. Charlie Appleby pupil was excellent in a daylight victory in the Pretty Polly S. two back at Newmarket going 1 1/4 miles, and a repeat of that showing will make her dangerous in the lane. Frankel bay has good early speed and might be the one to catch from the break with Frankie Dettori signed on for the ride.

#9 Agartha (10-1) is far from a win machine with two tallies and seven placings in her career, but she has run well in all of her 2022 races and has a lot of top-three appeal to me. Caravaggio filly will be a menacing figure late with John Velazquez inheriting the mount.

Brown’s #1 McKulik (6-1) and #3 Haughty (5-1) also merit much respect.

Belmont Oaks Value Plays

  • $25 win #5 Consumer Spending ($25)
  • 50-cent trifecta 5 with 1,3,4,9 with all ($16)
  • 30-cent superfecta 4,5 with 4,5 with 1,3,9 with all ($12.60)

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