Shapiro: Handicapping Tampa Bay's Pick 5 carryover on a reasonable budget

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April 7th, 2020

The racing week in Tampa commences on Wednesday and racing fans not only get a challenging 8-race card to dive into, but a $81,240 carryover in the late Pick 5. The sequence has full fields throughout and no free squares. It should pay quite nicely.

Race 4:

I lack a strong opinion in this low-level conditional claimer at two-turns on the lawn, but will take a shot against the two top choices on the morning line.

#3 Bizness Beauty is listed as the 3-1 favorite, but she is hard to get excited about. The daughter of Fed Biz has just one win in 23 career tries and will need to work out a trip from off the pace. #4 Shenu Shenume is even more difficult to endorse. Like Bizness Beauty, the Kathleen O’Connell trainee also faces slightly lesser competition on Wednesday, but has done her best running going one-turn on the dirt. Her ability to get a route of ground on the sod remains a major question.

#5 Noble Intentions and #9 Finest Jewel intrigue the most. Noble Intentions ships in from Gulfstream Park and gets jockey Daniel Centeno in the saddle. Finest Jewel broke her maiden over this course and should be prominently placed given the addition of blinkers by conditioner Kent Sweezey, Jr.

Race 5:

#6 Goneasagirlcanget is the 2-1-morning line choice after finishing second versus better last time out. The First Dude filly is definitely capable of besting this modest group of non-winners, but I am willing to fade her at an expected short price. The Shaun Morrow trainee takes on older runners for the initial time, was vet scratched last week, and has burnt a lot of money in her most recent starts. I prefer using others that will offer greater value in this $10,000 maiden claimer at 7-panels.

Race 6:

The pace should be contentious in this one-mile event over the sod, which should set things up for a runner from off the pace.

#4 Barrel of Destiny drops in class after an even fourth place effort over this course on Mar. 11. The presence of Antonio Gallardo is encouraging. #8 Better Yet raced against the flow in the same race #6 Itsagimme’s Girl and #1 Shes Dynomite exit last month. The Super Ninety Nine filly should get a much more favorable race shape on Wednesday and has shown an affinity for this course. If you are on a limited budget these are the two I recommend using. However, I do not fully trust them so I will spread a bit deeper.

#5 Monkey Mind may get caught up in an early tussle, but if Raul Mena can relax this 5-year-old mare just off the early pace she may have enough late to hold off the closers. #2 Cape Lea Di Da has not been seen since last Sept., but if the Kentucky-bred can get back to her July 19 race at Monmouth Park It could be good enough to spring the upset.

Race 7:

#9 Amelia’s Wild Ride moves to the dirt for the first time in ages and drops in for $5,000 for trainer Jane Cibelli. The 9-year-old son of D’Wildcat has won 13 career races, including a number of stakes races on the lawn, but is a shadow of his former self. His back class is likely to attract far too much money. I will toss him and instead lean on the second choice as my single in the sequence.

#4 Double Deep moves into the conditional claiming ranks after racing wide and finishing fourth on Mar. 21. The Ghostzapper gelding was outsprinted early on the cutback to one-turn in that recent try at the $8,000 level, but should be closer to the pace on Wednesday. If jockey Ricardo Feliciano can find a clean spot off the early pacesetters, he should be able to beat this bunch to the wire.

Race 8:

#1 Twirling Star ran a solid second in a 5-furlong affair in her first start off the bench on Mar. 15. The daughter of Twirling Candy draws favorably to the inside, retains the services of Daniel Centeno, and should move forward after shaking off the rust last month. My top pick in this maiden special weight event on the grass.

#3 Clear as Day disappointed a month ago in a 10-horse field over this turf course, but cuts back slightly in distance and should sit a perfect stalking trip under Angel Suarez. I will use her defensively.

Suggested Ticket: (50-cent Pick 5)

  • R4: 5+9
  • R5: 1+4+9+10
  • R6: 2+4+5+8
  • R7: 4
  • R8: 1+3

Ticket Cost: $32