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Homeracing

Shapiro: Handicapping Double Pick 6 Carryover at the Spa

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TwinSpires Staff

July 25th, 2018

By SCOTT SHAPIRO

After an exciting first four days that included Monomoy Girl all but solidifying the three-year-old filly championship with a dominant win in the Grade 1 Coaching Club Oaks, horseplayers get a great wagering opportunity to kick off the second week of racing at Saratoga.

A Pick 6 carryover of $249K over the final six races of Wednesday’s card that includes the Grade 2 Honorable Miss Handicap gives handicappers who had a poor start to the meet a chance to move back into the black and those that popped the gates a chance to add to their bankroll. Here are my thoughts:

Race 5:

The sequence gets started with a state-bred special weight event for two-year-old fillies sprinting over the main track. This is a wide-open affair with mostly first-time starters set to break from the gate. I will use a few, including my top two choices in #2 Evan’s Nice Now and $230,000 purchase for Walking L Thoroughbreds #6 Time Warp.

Race 6:

A high-level optional claimer with a compact, but solid group of fillies and mares is up next. #5 Pray for Leslie enters a perfect 2-for-2 for trainer Albert Stall and merits respect, but she has had things her way versus lesser at Churchill Downs. I prefer #6 Come Dancing, who comes in off a 6 ½-month layoff but draws favorably to the outside and has the best BRIS Speed rating (97) of the bunch.

Race 7:

With more rain in the forecast it is likely that this starter allowance event scheduled for the inner turf will be washed off the lawn. #1 English Dancer beat a three-horse field in her first race off a seven-week freshening at Belmont, but in doing so proved she can handle an off going. If not her I can see several being good enough to get to the wire first regardless of whether it is run on the sod or the main track. On an affordable budget I will single the daughter of English Channel.

Race 8:

This state-bred event is also likely to be moved to the main track given the weather. #4 Mo Diddley is my top choice on either surface. The son of Uncle Mo has progressed nicely in his first three starts for trainer Mark Casse and has shown the ability to run on both turf and dirt. I will single him if it gets moved to the off going and include a couple of others it if stays on the grass.

Race 9:

The featured Honorable Miss only drew six veteran female sprinters, but five of them come in with strong resumes and appear to have a legitimate shot at getting to the wire first.

#6 Finley’sluckycharm can certainly beat this group on her best, but I think she has lost a step in 2018. I prefer a couple of gals that appear to be peaking coming into the six-furlong dash.

#3 Kirby’s Penny and #2 Chalon ran 1-2 in the Grade 3 Vagrancy and then Chalon came back with a win on June 17th at Monmouth in a non-graded stakes event. I will use them both in hopes of beating the 8-5-morning line chalk.

Race 10:

The payoff leg is an open $40,000 maiden claimer scheduled to be run over the inner turf course, but once again that is doubtful. I advise using a few here if you can afford to including #9 Novus on the drop in class for trainer Christophe Clement, as well as #10 Somebody for trainer James H. Bond.

Suggested Pick 6 Wager (assuming races are washed off the turf)

Race 5: 2,6

Race 6: 5,6

Race 7: 1

Race 8: 4

Race 9: 2,3

Race 10: 2,5,7,9,10,12

Ticket Cost: $96

 

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