Shapiro: Santa Anita Late Pick 4 success may lie with singles

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TwinSpires Staff

June 23rd, 2017


The penultimate Saturday card of the Santa Anita spring meeting is upon us as we try to stay hot with our late Pick 4 plays to close out the season in Arcadia.
We have rattled off three straight profitable columns with two nice scores a few weeks back and then grinded out a small profit with a relatively chalky sequence last weekend.
The last four races this Saturday are quite challenging, which should equate to a solid payday if we can get through them unscathed. We will be somewhat aggressive building around two non-chalk singles and spend a little bit more than usual given the upside and hope to continue to build the bankroll for the Del Mar summer meeting next month.
Race 7
The sequence begins with a full field of rock bottom maiden claimers going five furlongs over the main track.
There is no way to be too confident in this race given the short five-eighths distance and a number of lightly raced runners that have not shown too much to date, so we will spread deep on both tickets and hope to catch a price.
My lukewarm top choice is #9 Bloodletting for trainer John Sadler and Doubledown Stables. This son of Idiot Proof showed speed against a level higher before tiring badly late. He drops in class and moves outside, both which should lead to a much stronger effort in his second try.
I also give a significant chance to #2 Hoppity who removes the blinkers and should be able to work out a better voyage than he did in last start, as well as #10 My Boy Rudy who got off to an extremely slow start in his debut, but can move forward quite a bit with a cleaner break from the gate for trainer Mark Glatt.
Race 8
The second leg of the sequence is an optional claiming event at one mile over the Santa Anita lawn.
#12 Rye Patch is the deserving 5-2-morning line favorite going first off the claim for the aforementioned John Sadler. Sadler and Kosta Hronis dipped in to grab the son of Hard Spun for $50,000 last time. He draws to the far outside and will have other speed to deal with in this one. I give him a big shot, but prefer #4 Unapologetic.
Unapologetic makes his second start of the form cycle for trainer Bill Spawr. The four-year-old gelding was slow out of the gate on May 26 and got a somewhat apathetic ride from Mike Smith when finishing third at this level. I love how the son of Temple City has continued to improve with each start and expect him to be a bit closer to the pace on Saturday under Tiago Pereira. I think he gets by Rye Patch late and will make him the first of my two singles at odds of 5-1 on the line.
I also give outside shots to the two Richard Baltas runners #3 Street Moxie and #8 My Italian Babbo.
Race 9
The ninth is a competitive state-bred special weight event for fillies and mares at six panels over the main track.
My top choice in here is #8 Hailey Rachele. This five-year-old mare got a late start to her career for low profile trainer Sam Scolamieri, but showed a combination of talent and grit fighting three-wide around the track and missing by just a half-length in her debut last month. I expect her to move forward with the start under her belt and think she gets the best of this group at 4-1 on the line. She will be the single on my second ticket on Saturday.
If Hailey Rachele fails us, I think this could go in several directions. I will include first-time starter #1 Moonlite Madness, #3 Beau Square, #4 Soul Sound, and #9 Princess Dorian on my ticket singled to Unapologetic in the eighth.
Race 10
The sequence concludes with a starter allowance event for non-winners of two down the hill. I do not have a strong opinion in this race, but do think odds maker Jon White got things right for the most part with his morning line.
3-1 favorite #12 Sir Samson draws well to the outside and drops in class making him the most likely winner. #2 Rainbow Squall was spotted way too ambitiously last time out, but trainer George Papaprodromou has been hot and finds a more realistic placement for his son of City Zip. #5 Allaboutmike dominated a group of $75K maiden claimers last time out and has a shot if he can avoid an early duel to win two straight. #9 Sahara Storm was sent to the lead from his inside draw against open $40K claimers earlier this month, but should be able to stalk the pace this time and finish with a bit more authority. #10 Tyler's Tek and #11 Giro Candito are not without a shot at big prices on the line and are worth including given their projected value to close this out.
Here is how I will attack the late Pick 4:
Ticket 1: 1+2+3+7+8+9+10 with 4 with 1+3+4+8+9 with 2+5+9+10+11+12 = $105
Ticket 2: 1+2+3+7+8+9+10 with 3+4+8+12 with 8 with 2+5+9+10+11+12 = $84

Total Budget = $189