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Homeracing

Shapiro: Santa Anita Late Pick 4 success may lie with singles

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TwinSpires Staff

June 23rd, 2017

by SCOTT SHAPIRO

The penultimate Saturday card of the Santa Anita spring meeting is upon us as we try to stay hot with our late Pick 4 plays to close out the season in Arcadia.
 
We have rattled off three straight profitable columns with two nice scores a few weeks back and then grinded out a small profit with a relatively chalky sequence last weekend.
 
The last four races this Saturday are quite challenging, which should equate to a solid payday if we can get through them unscathed. We will be somewhat aggressive building around two non-chalk singles and spend a little bit more than usual given the upside and hope to continue to build the bankroll for the Del Mar summer meeting next month.
 
Race 7
 
The sequence begins with a full field of rock bottom maiden claimers going five furlongs over the main track.
 
There is no way to be too confident in this race given the short five-eighths distance and a number of lightly raced runners that have not shown too much to date, so we will spread deep on both tickets and hope to catch a price.
 
My lukewarm top choice is #9 Bloodletting for trainer John Sadler and Doubledown Stables. This son of Idiot Proof showed speed against a level higher before tiring badly late. He drops in class and moves outside, both which should lead to a much stronger effort in his second try.
 
I also give a significant chance to #2 Hoppity who removes the blinkers and should be able to work out a better voyage than he did in last start, as well as #10 My Boy Rudy who got off to an extremely slow start in his debut, but can move forward quite a bit with a cleaner break from the gate for trainer Mark Glatt.
 
Race 8
 
The second leg of the sequence is an optional claiming event at one mile over the Santa Anita lawn.
 
#12 Rye Patch is the deserving 5-2-morning line favorite going first off the claim for the aforementioned John Sadler. Sadler and Kosta Hronis dipped in to grab the son of Hard Spun for $50,000 last time. He draws to the far outside and will have other speed to deal with in this one. I give him a big shot, but prefer #4 Unapologetic.
 
Unapologetic makes his second start of the form cycle for trainer Bill Spawr. The four-year-old gelding was slow out of the gate on May 26 and got a somewhat apathetic ride from Mike Smith when finishing third at this level. I love how the son of Temple City has continued to improve with each start and expect him to be a bit closer to the pace on Saturday under Tiago Pereira. I think he gets by Rye Patch late and will make him the first of my two singles at odds of 5-1 on the line.
 
I also give outside shots to the two Richard Baltas runners #3 Street Moxie and #8 My Italian Babbo.
 
Race 9
 
The ninth is a competitive state-bred special weight event for fillies and mares at six panels over the main track.
 
My top choice in here is #8 Hailey Rachele. This five-year-old mare got a late start to her career for low profile trainer Sam Scolamieri, but showed a combination of talent and grit fighting three-wide around the track and missing by just a half-length in her debut last month. I expect her to move forward with the start under her belt and think she gets the best of this group at 4-1 on the line. She will be the single on my second ticket on Saturday.
 
If Hailey Rachele fails us, I think this could go in several directions. I will include first-time starter #1 Moonlite Madness, #3 Beau Square, #4 Soul Sound, and #9 Princess Dorian on my ticket singled to Unapologetic in the eighth.
 
Race 10
 
The sequence concludes with a starter allowance event for non-winners of two down the hill. I do not have a strong opinion in this race, but do think odds maker Jon White got things right for the most part with his morning line.
 
3-1 favorite #12 Sir Samson draws well to the outside and drops in class making him the most likely winner. #2 Rainbow Squall was spotted way too ambitiously last time out, but trainer George Papaprodromou has been hot and finds a more realistic placement for his son of City Zip. #5 Allaboutmike dominated a group of $75K maiden claimers last time out and has a shot if he can avoid an early duel to win two straight. #9 Sahara Storm was sent to the lead from his inside draw against open $40K claimers earlier this month, but should be able to stalk the pace this time and finish with a bit more authority. #10 Tyler's Tek and #11 Giro Candito are not without a shot at big prices on the line and are worth including given their projected value to close this out.
 
Here is how I will attack the late Pick 4:
 
Ticket 1: 1+2+3+7+8+9+10 with 4 with 1+3+4+8+9 with 2+5+9+10+11+12 = $105
 
Ticket 2: 1+2+3+7+8+9+10 with 3+4+8+12 with 8 with 2+5+9+10+11+12 = $84

Total Budget = $189

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