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Homeracing

Shapiro’s Double Pick 6 Carryover Analysis at Saratoga Wednesday

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TwinSpires Staff

August 28th, 2018

By SCOTT SHAPIRO

After a dark day on Tuesday, racing resumes on Wednesday for the final six days of the summer meeting at Saratoga. With that comes a two-day Pick 6 carryover of $291K, in large part due to the wire-to-wire win by Blue Belt at odds of 50-1 in Monday afternoon’s seventh race.

Here are my thoughts on the sequence that starts and finishes with a state-bred special weight event and includes the featured With Anticipation Stakes (G3) for two-year-olds on the lawn.

Race 5

Fillies making their second career start are the runners that interest me most in this 6 ½-furlong event over the main track.

#3 More Mischief was bet down to 3-5 on debut for leading trainer Chad Brown, but tired late over a sloppy going to finish a well beaten fourth. I expect a much stronger effort over the fast going.

Irad Ortiz Jr. took #6 Chillinwithfriends off the pace in her debut for trainer Rudy Rodriguez and left the daughter of Friend Or Foe with far too much to do late to get to the top two runners on July 25. However, she did show some serious run during the middle stages of that first try. She is the deserving 5-2 favorite.

If an upset is to happen, #8 No Stone Unturned could be the gal to get the best of the top two on oddsmaker David Aragona’s morning line. The Roddy Valente owned filly draws outside her main rivals and should run well after finishing second as the 4 to 5-chalk at Finger Lakes last month for trainer Jeremiah Englehart.

Race 6

A non-winners of two turf sprint for claimers is up next.

#1A Jazzy Juder moves from the rail to the outside after being shuffled back in the early going, making a huge middle move and flattening late at Belmont Park on June 24th. If jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. can avoid another extremely wide voyage this daughter of Freud should be tough to beat. On an economical ticket the five-year-old mare is a horse I will lean on.

#8 Sensible Myth is likely to be sent off the favorite on the drop in class for trainer George Weaver. She can win, but I am slightly concerned with the move into the claiming ranks after taking on stakes company at Laurel in early July. 7-to-5 seems too short.

#2 Animauxselle, #4 Tres Charmant, and #10 Lune Lake are potential winners that could provide some separation early in the sequence and are worth including if your budget allows.

Race 7

#4 Fair Regis looks like a potential single in this six-furlong dash for New York bred fillies and mares. The Drawing Away Stable runner has won five-of-16 career starts and comes off a runner-up finish to nice looking Bill Mott trainee Satisfy. There does not appear to be anyone of that quality in this bunch. The daughter of Bustin Stones should find a perfect spot off of what should be an honest, but not suicidal early pace. With a clean voyage she looks tough to deny.

Race 8

A seven-furlong event for state-bred optional claimers makes up the fourth leg. I found this race to be extremely challenging, but in the end I landed on #11 Stretch’s Stone. The four-year-old gelding cuts back to one turn after a stalk and fade to third place effort on July 23 for hot training Bruce Levine.

I also give a big look to #4 Caretaker who stretches back out to seven panels for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and #9 Aveenu Malcainu who drops out of stakes competition for the first time since his debut victory over this track last July.

Race 9

Juvenile males take center stage on Wednesday in the $150,000 With Anticipation Stakes at 1 1/16 miles over the grass.

#1 Henley’s Joy was floated out extremely wide on the first turn in his debut victory at Ellis Park, but overcame the early trouble to win going away for trainer Mike Maker. The son of Kitten’s Joy should be able to save ground early and come with a similar strong late charge in his first start versus winners. With an honest pace he can make it two straight victories to start his career. He is my top choice.

Outside of the Bloom Racing Stable colt, I lack a strong opinion so I will take a shot and single the $50,000 OBS April 2018 purchase. Joel Rosario picks up the mount.

Race 10

The payoff leg is a 1 1/16-mile event conducted over the inner turf course.

#4 Pirelli Tower chased lone speed winner Mango M around the track before tiring in the final furlong on July 14. That race came at a 1 1/8 miles though and this son of Gio Ponti should appreciate the slight turnback to 1 1/16 miles on Wednesday. He certainly is a major player, but is hard to fully trust after losing twice in a row at below 2-to-1.

#3 Bernardino is a half-brother to two-time turf winner Manoffire. The Jorge Abreu could be live on first asking.

#5 Jimmy Jazz and #9 The Sheik of Araby have both been gelded since their last start. If they move forward off of the ultimate equipment change they could get to the wire first versus this group.

Suggested Ticket

3,6,8 with 1A with 4 with 4,9,11 with 1 with 3,4,5,9 = $72

Good luck with what should be a huge pool!

 

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