Homeracing

Shapiro's Late Pick 4 Ticket for Keeneland Oct. 21

Profile Picture: Scott Shapiro

October 20th, 2020

It Is hard to believe that there are just four days left at the Keeneland fall meeting, but that is the case. The final week of racing gets started on Wednesday afternoon with an eight-race card, led by a pair of competitive allowance events that are part of the Late Pick 4.

Suggested Wager: (50-cent Pick 4)

  • R5: 2,3,5,8
  • R6: 2,5
  • R7: 1
  • R8: 1,2,4,7

Ticket Cost: $16

Keeneland Race 5:

There does not appear to be a lot of early zip signed on in this open $40,000 claimer at 1 1/16 miles over the main track.

#8 Street to Indy has the speed to clear from his outside post in his first start off the claim for hot training Chris Hartman. The 7-year-old gelding should control things from the get-go making him a must use.

#2 Intrepid Heart has been freshened up since rattling off consecutive victories for Todd Pletcher. The favorite in the 2019 Peter Pan (G3) should sit a perfect stalking trip under Ricardo Santana Jr. and is the deserving 5-2-choice on the morning line. However, the drop in class off the short layoff is slightly concerning.

#5 Mi Tres Por Ciento also should be prominent early after stumbling out of the gate and losing rider Tyler Gaffalione earlier this month. It is encouraging that the 11-time winner returns quickly and retains the services of the meet’s leading rider.

#3 Lone Rock stretches back out to a route of ground after a pair of tries sprinting at Saratoga. He is worth including at a price.

Keeneland Race 6:

2-1-morning line favorite #2 Pass the Plate takes on older runners for the first time in this second-level allowance event over the Keeneland lawn. The Silverton Hill filly has a tremendous turn of foot and won her only start over this turf course, but is tough to go all-in on due to her lack of early speed. The Paul McGee charge should run them all down if the pace is honest, but there is no guarantee that will be the case.

Therefore, I will also include #5 Golden Curl. The Curlin filly looks to make it two in a row after a two-length victory versus lesser at Churchill Downs. Look for jockey Declan Cannon to send this Brian Lynch trainee to the front, set a moderate early tempo, and give Pass the Plate a battle in the final furlong.

Keeneland Race 7:

I have been waiting for #1 Impeccable Style to cut back to one turn all year. The Uncle Mo filly has hit the board in 3-of-4 starts as a 3-year-old, including a runner-up finish to Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil in the Indiana Oaks (G3), but has lacked the punch to get to the wire first from off the pace. The move from route-to-sprint should increase her ability to finish, as she drops into an allowance event in her initial try for trainer Brendan Walsh. With a clean voyage from her inside draw, the Kentucky-bred should be able to take control in the lane and earn her second career victory. At her 7-2-morning line price, I will not only single her in the sequence, but also make a healthy Win wager.

Keeneland Race 8:

The card concludes with a maiden special weight event for fillies and mares. It is hard to get overly excited about the chances of any of these non-winners, so I will use several.

#7 Fortuna and #2 Margaret’s Joy exit the same race last month at Kentucky Downs and have the tactical speed to be involved early. They are the likeliest to get to the wire first, but I will also include #1 Captain Ginny B and #4 Safari Queen. Captain Ginny B ran a decent fourth in her first start for a barn that has won with 18% of their starters in 2020. She should be a huge price. Safari Queen makes her third start off the lengthy layoff and draws favorably after a wide voyage last time out at Belmont Park.

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