Shapiro’s Pick 4 analysis for Springboard Mile Day
Adore finished third in the 2016 Fair Grounds Oaks (c) Amanda Hodges Weir/Hodges Photography
by Scott Shapiro
One of the stronger cards on this mid-December weekend of 2017 takes place on Sunday at Remington Park. The Oklahoma City venue offers horseplayers a plethora of stakes action headlined by the $400,000 Springboard Mile.
A $100,000 guaranteed all-stakes Pick 4 is offered up over the final four races of the challenging 12-race card and I think it is worth taking a shot at due to a vulnerable favorite in the featured 11TH race.
Here are my thoughts and how I will attack the Pick 4 that gets started with the She’s All In Stakes for fillies and mares in Race 9 and concludes with the Trapeze Stakes for two-year-old fillies in Race 12.
The $100,000 She’s All In commences the four-race sequence.
The field is led by 2-1-morning-line favorite Adore (#8). The daughter of Big Brown has won two straight over this racetrack and draws outside the other likely speeds in this mile-and-70-yard event on dirt. If Ricardo Santana Jr. can avoid a duel on the front end, this Winchell Thoroughbreds runner should be tough to beat. That being said there is a strong chance the pace is a contentious one and that could set things up for a horse that offers better value and could benefit from the flow of the race.
Ready to Confess (#7) stretches back out to two turns after a non-threatening eighth-place effort off the 7 1/2-month break two back at Keeneland on October 6 and a well-beaten runner-up finish over Churchill Downs one-turn mile configuration on November 16. The daughter of More Than Ready should appreciate getting back to a route of ground in her third start of the form cycle and offers serious value at anything near her 12-1 line.
I will use both fillies to kick things off.
The second leg is the $75,000 Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial Stakes run at a mile and 70 yards. I thought this race came up strong.
Dazzling Gem (#4) has not been seen since late winter when he finished third in the Mineshaft Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds and followed it up with a fourth-place run in the $250,000 Essex Handicap at Oaklawn Park. He is hard to trust off the extended break for trainer Brad Cox, but if he is ready to fire fresh I love his chances.
I will also use Shotgun Kowboy (#2), who is hard not to use based on his seven-for-nine record over this racetrack. You can toss his last effort when he tried a yielding turf course at Churchill Downs.
Finally Whiskey Tree (#8) interests me at a price. He is a bit slow on numbers compared to the top few on the morning line, but he has won seven straight and loves this racetrack. Perhaps trainer Karl Broberg will have him ready for a career best.
I will be taking a shot against 6-5-morning-line favorite Greyvitos (#12) in the featured Springboard Mile. The top four earn qualifying points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series.
Read all about my analysis and suggested wagering strategy for the Springboard Mile.
I lack a strong opinion in the Sunday finale, but it is a full field event run for two-year-old fillies that offers a great way to close the day. I will hope to beat Greyvitos in the 11TH and catch one of my better prices in the $100,000 Trapeze.
Here is how I will play the $100,000 guaranteed Sunday afternoon all-stakes Pick 4 at Remington Park:
Ticket ($.50 Pick 4)
Race 9: 7+8
Race 10: 2+4+8
Race 11: 1+4+9+10
Race 12: 1+3+4+5+6+8+10
Ticket Cost: $84
Good luck at the windows!