Shapiro's Pick 4 ticket for Keeneland Oct. 14

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October 13th, 2020

Another week of racing in Lexington kicks off on Wednesday afternoon. The 8-race card at Keeneland is headlined by a pair of intriguing maiden special weights and a competitive feature for 3-year-old fillies. 

Suggested Pick 4 Wager:

  • R5: 2,4
  • R6: 2,4,6,7
  • R7: 4
  • R8: 3,4,6,8,10
  • Ticket Cost: $20

Keeneland Pick 4 Analysis

Race 5:

I have no interest in the runners that have competed in the afternoons thus far, so I will lean on a pair of first-time starters in this two-turn turf event for protected non-winners.

#2 Palamos is a full-sister to 2019 Glens Falls (G2) winner Mrs. Sippy. Her trainer Graham Motion does not excel with debut runners, but is capable of having his stock ready to win on first asking. The daughter of Blame may need a race or two to be at her best, but she could be fit enough to beat a modest group to start the sequence.

#4 Santa Guapa is listed as the 5-2-morning line choice. The Don Alberto Stable filly sports a long series of works, including a pair of local drills for a barn that is off to a great start at the Keeneland fall meeting. She is an obvious contender.  

Race 6:

#1 Dovima and #3 Movie Moxy are the top two choices on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s morning line. Both 3-year-old fillies have run fast enough to win at this level and make a ton of sense on paper, but are likely to be underlays on Wednesday afternoon. I will fade them both in hopes of busting things open a bit in the second leg. 

Dovima draws the rail after finishing third in her initial try over the main track in late August. The daughter of Union Rags ran into the good-looking Brad Cox trainee Lady Rocket in that start in Saratoga, so not crossing the wire first is understandable. However, she was also easily out finished by trial maiden Back Channel that day making it difficult to swallow the relatively short price.

Moxie Moxy has run races that are fast enough to earn her first visit to the winner’s circle on Wednesday, but she has lacked a will to win. I have a difficult time endorsing a runner that has failed at 3-2 odds or less in each of her first three tries. 

I will use several but, I like #2 Motown Girl most. The daughter of Uncle Mo got off to a slow start in her first try over the dirt this year and was in tight early before closing well to finish third. With a clean trip, she should take a big step forward at a solid price.

Race 7:

#4 Lexi On the Move has not won since rattling off two victories to start her career, but I am willing to draw a line through two of her three most recent starts. On April 4, the daughter of Fast Anna failed to fire over the sloppy going and on July 31 she had a troubled voyage in her lone try over the lawn. Sure, I wish the Robertino Diodoro trainee finished with more energy in her most recent try at Churchill Downs, but she broke tardy in a four-horse field and swung wide that afternoon before tiring late. She should sit a perfect midpack trip under David Cohen for a barn that is off to a white-hot start at the fall meeting.   

Race 8:

A tricky bottom level maiden claimer at 6-panels closes things out. I lack a strong opinion in this one, so I will use several in hopes of catching a price to end the day.