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Homeracing

Shapiro's Santa Anita Pick 5 carryover analysis

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TwinSpires Staff

March 24th, 2018

by SCOTT SHAPIRO

After a rainout on Thursday, it was a longshot player's paradise on Friday at Santa Anita.

Four winners that paid $20 or more during the first five races yesterday paved the way to a Players' Pick 5 carryover of $251,993 starting in Race 1 on Saturday's 10-race card at "The Great Race Place."

Here are my quick thoughts on each of the five races included in the sequence:

Race 1

The first race was washed off the lawn leaving us with a field of seven.

#14 Just Kidding is a must use based on his past success over the dirt.

#3 Saint Dermot is likely to be heavily backed if moved to the main track, but I am not sure he is anywhere near the horse he once was. Fading him if a short price makes sense.

#1 Comes the Dream and #2 Eagle Screams can definitely win.

Race 2

The second leg of the Saturday Pick 5 carryover is a maiden special weight event at seven-eighths of a mile.

#5 Once On Whiskey it the clear one to beat off a runner-up finish on debut for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. The son of Bodemeister showed absolutely no early zip in his first start back on February 3rd, but came with a very strong rally to lose by just over three lengths in the end.

With a better start Once On Whiskey will be tough, but I expect a much-improved effort as well from #2 Upo. The son of Archarcharch took a ton of support at the windows on debut, but had little left after battling early. If jockey Geovanni Franco can get him to the front and avoid another speed duel, he could spring the upset.

Race 3

My single in Saturday's Players' Pick 5 comes in this optional claimer at six panels over the main track.

#5 Powder makes the second start of her four-year-old campaign after dueling early and tiring late in her first try in three and a half months for trainer Eric Kruljac. She should move forward in her second start off the break in a spot that appears extremely light on early speed. Look for Corey Nakatani to find a prominent spot early and have enough late to get the job done.

Race 4

As expected this race was washed off the hillside turf course making #3 Fly First Class the likely favorite based on two prior races over the main track. The John Sadler trainee will take a lot of money, but I am not so sure it is as simple as just using this son of Eddington. I will use several including first-time starter #9 Wound Tight for trainer Bob Hess, Jr.  

Race 5

The Santa Monica (G2) conducted at seven furlongs over Santa Anita's main track concludes the sequence.

#3 Paradise Woods is the one to beat making her first start since the battle with Eclipse Award winner Unique Bella in the La Brea (G1) on Opening Day. If she can avoid a duel on the backstretch she should be tough to deny. If the Richard Mandella trainee fails to fire her best shot, none of the other four ladies entered will surprise.

Good luck with the carryover!

You can find my full card Daily Selections every day for the Southern California circuit here.

(Benoit Photos)

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