Shapiro's Thoughts and Suggested Wager for Friday's Pick 5 Carryover at Churchill Downs
I failed to take advantage of the six-figure Pick 6 carryover with a mandatory payout yesterday at Churchill Downs, but hopefully I can make up for my subpar handicapping on Thursday evening with a strong effort in the late Pick 5 on Friday.
No one hit the early Pick 5 yesterday in Louisville, so that means there is a $35,689 carryover in the sequence that commences in Race 5 and ends in Race 9.
Here are some thoughts on each of the races involved and a suggested wager:
I lack a strong opinion in this non-winners of 2 low level claimer to get things started. The mile and a sixteenth event over the main track is a race I will use several in and hope to catch a price to open things up a bit.
The best-case scenario will probably be #1 Silver Giant. The son of Giant Oak may be too slow to beat this group, but I expect jockey C.J. McMahon to make the lead from his inside draw and take them as far as he can for trainer Tim Glyshaw.
This open $10,000 claimer at a mile and a sixteenth is another challenging competitive two-turn event over the main track.
My top pick in this full field event is #8 Colony Strike. The nine-year-old son of Smart Strike should find a comfy spot just off the early pace under jockey Adam Beschizza. If Beschizza can avoid getting caught up in a tussle on the front end he should have enough to hold this group off.
If they go at it early this race could collapse so I will also include the Tom Amoss/Maggi Moss entry of #1 More On Tap and #1A Under and Over, although it appears likely that one will scratch since Florent Geroux is named on both runners. #10 Snickerboxer is my third horse based on his 9 for 32 record and 2 wins in 5 tries over this course.
The third leg is a $30,000 maiden claimer run at seven furlongs over the main track.
My top choice in this field of 10 is #1 Jan One. The Legal Team Racing filly raced against special weight foes twice as a two-year-old for trainer and ran okay, but failed to hit the board in either try. Romans has given the daughter of New Year’s Day over six months off and brings her back in a much more realistic spot on Friday afternoon. If she can overcome the inside draw I like her chances to get the best of this group and find the winners’ circle for the first time.
I will also include #5 On the Come for hot riding Brian Hernandez, Jr and #6 Ghosted dropping in class and cutting back to a sprint for trainer Ron Moquett.
My single in the sequence comes in this five-furlong dash over the lawn.
#8 Elizabeth Darcy is just faster than this bunch. The daughter of Camacho ran in the Juvenile Turf Sprint on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Del Mar last fall where she dueled early and tired late at odds of 39-1. Trainer Wesley Ward gave her nearly six months off before bringing her back at Keeneland in late April. In that start she made the early lead, but could not hold off the eventual winner in the final furlong.
I expect Elizabeth Darcy to clear from her outside draw and thrive in her second start of the form cycle. She is unlikely to provide any value, but she appears the likeliest winner on the Friday afternoon card.
If she gets tired late, #6 Originator is the one likeliest to get the money. The daughter of Artie Schiller has been racing at two turns in Florida of late, but was extremely impressive in her five furlong debut in January running down a field of 12 at odds of 28-1 for a barn that rarely has their runners cranked on first asking. She should be full of run in the lane.
The finale is a $10,000 maiden claimer contested at one mile.
5-2-morning line favorite #9 Patti Patti Patti has the speed to make the lead and is likely to take a lot of support off of consecutive runner-up finishes, but she has had her chances. I will play against the daughter of Sidney’s Candy and use a few that will provide greater value if I am fortunate enough to navigate my way through the first four races.
Race 5: 1+2+4+7+9
Race 6: 1+8+10
Race 7: 1+5+6
Race 8: 8
Race 9: 1+3+5+7
Ticket Cost: $90