Slumpbustertember? Turning the calendar page to break out of wagering slump

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Ed DeRosa

September 2nd, 2016

This is a great weekend to exercise our handicapping skills with the hopes of exorcising some demons.

I’m in a slump—a historically bad slump. I’ve tracked every bet on horse racing I’ve made since January 1, 2010, and the good news is there have been worse months than the August I had (-51.29%); the bad news is one of those worse months was just this past April (-57.50%) and November (-53.75%).

It all adds up (or subtracts down in terms of my bankroll) to the worst two-month stretch since November-December 2013 and worst six-month stretch since September 2014-February 2015.

One of the good things about keeping track of my action is that you can see in black and white that it does get better. Another thing that helps is turning the page. A new month means a new ledger and a new chance at starting a positive streak instead of a negative one.

And what better a way to start September than with the new late Pick 5 at Saratoga and opening day at Kentucky Downs?

We’ll be back Saturday morning (i.e. after scratches) for a more in-depth look at the Kentucky Downs card, but for now here’s a survey on how I plan to use Ultimate Past Performances to help me win this year at Kentucky Downs.

As for the Pick 5 at Saratoga, how can you help but not play in support of NYRA adding this to the wagering menu largely because of horseplayer request?

The sequence starts with all first-time starters, and we’ll be leaning on the board to help us eliminate and include horses, but the rest of the way looks pretty formful with #3 strong leans in both races 8 & 9. In the last leg #1 Twenty Four Seven drops into the maiden claiming ranks after some high hopes to start his career (Triple Crown nominated, favored against straight maidens, etc.) and is worth inclusion here.

In leg 1 (race 6) I’ll use 3, 4, 7, 9 no matter their prices on all tickets and will evaluate 2 & 6 based on tote board action and Maggie Wolfendale’s comments in the paddock. Numbers 1, 5, 8, & 10 will come down to if any of them are taking significant money.