Stallion Season S. field analysis and exotics plays

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October 11th, 2022

Ten three-year-old geldings will race one mile over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt in the $100,000 Stallion Season S. on Wednesday.

Below we provide a full-field analysis and offer our best exotics plays — including exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets — plus a Daily Double wager combining the Stallion Season Fillies S. (Race 6) with Race 7.

Race 7: Stallion Season S., one mile, three-year-old colts and geldings

#1 Boulder Bay (30-1): The three-year-old gelding ran one mile on turf in his last two, finishing 10th in both allowance races by a combined 30 lengths. The Robert Dobbs Jr. trainee got a win back in May at Horseshoe Indianapolis in his 2022 debut while stretching out to a mile and 70 yards, but his last three starts have produced Brisnet Speed figures ranging from 45 to 59, well below the average par winning figure (92) for today’s conditions.

#2 Dossier (9-2): The chestnut gelding made his first start for Genaro Garcia while coming off a nearly five-month break and won a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight. The Gold for Cash son moves up in class and tries a route distance for the first time while picking up hot jockey Marcelino Pedroza Jr., a 19% winner this meet who wins at an 18% rate with routes. Dossier has one win and a third in three tries at Horseshoe, but his pedigree suggests he’s bred to enjoy shorter distances.

#3 Mansfield Tiger (2-1): Previously trained by Marvin Johnson, Mansfield Tiger won his first start for Tim Eggleston on Sept. 26 in a one-mile and 70-yard state-bred allowance. The dark bay beat the second-place finisher by a half-length and was another 1 3/4 lengths in front of Too Bad Justice, who re-opposes here. Eggleston is a 13% winner in non-graded stakes and a 26% winner with horses that won their last race. Samuel Bermudez, a 33% winner in his last 12 races with Eggleston, will retain the mount.

#4 Loademupjustice (5-1): The closer has finished out of the money in his last three running beyond a mile and will cut back in distance. He finished second by 3 1/4 lengths in a one-mile allowance on turf back in June at this track and will switch back to dirt. Trainer Aaron West is a 16% winner with horses transitioning from turf to dirt and an 18% winner with routes, but jockey Joshua Morales is 1-for-50 in his route mounts and a 5% winner with closer types.

#5 Too Bad Justice (3-1): The other runner in the field saddled by Eggleston, Too Bad Justice was beaten as the favorite last out in the allowance won by Mansfield Tiger after he held a lead through the first two calls, then yielded late to finish third. Eggleston is 4-for-7 with beaten favorites and a 30% winner with horses making their third start off a layoff. Joseph Ramos, a 19% winner this meet and an 18% winner with routes, will retain the mount. Too Bad Justice, a grandson of Harlan’s Holiday, has yet to race at today's distance, but he has two wins, four second-place finishes, and a pair of thirds in nine races at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

#6 Justicethebeast (30-1): The Elusive Quality grandson will make his second start off a layoff for Aaron West, who has three wins in his last 11 non-graded stakes. The bay gelding finished third by 3 1/2 lengths in a one-mile and 70-yard maiden claimer last out, but his 54 Speed figure is far below the average winning speed par. Gage Holmes will pick up the mount.

#7 Killer Hotrod (12-1): The Robert Gorham pupil has yet to break his maiden in eight tries and finished fourth most recently in a one-mile maiden special weight. The dark bay gelding has hit the board in his last four, and his 89 Late Pace rating at last asking makes him a viable play underneath in exotic wagers.

#8 Wishy Washy (30-1): The More Than Ready grandson pulled up and walked off in his last two starts, at one mile on turf and 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. His four other career races were sprints, with only one of those resulting with an in-the-money finish. Trainer Michael Lauer is a 6% winner with horses coming off layoffs of 90 days or more and an 11% winner in his last 753 at route distances. Wishy Washy picks up hot jockey Emmanuel Esquivel, who is 26-7-3-1 over the last seven days.

#9 Basscoat (6-1): Lauer’s other runner, Basscoat broke his maiden last out at a mile and 70 yards on sloppy ground in a $36,000 maiden special weight taken off the turf at Horseshoe. The Paynter son will keep Santo Sanjur in the saddle and has shown improvement in his last two races after failing to finish better than fourth in his first eight career starts.

#10 Tour the Moon (10-1): Out of a Malibu Moon mare, the grandson of Tiznow finished sixth by 10 lengths at last asking in a one-mile claiming race on Aug. 29. His three most recent starts resulted in sixth-, 11th-, and seventh-place finishes, but the Antonio Duran trainee has posted a pair of sharp workouts leading up to this event.

Stallion Season S. exotics

$5 Exacta: 3 with 5,7 ($10)

$2.50 Trifecta: 3 with 5,7 with 4,5,7,9 ($15)

10-cent Superfecta: 3,5 with 3,5,7,9 with 2,3,4,5,7,9 with 2,3,4,5,7,9,10 ($9.60)

Daily Double wager with Stallion Season Fillies S. (Race 6)

#2 No More Fake News (3-1) opened as a slight morning line favorite after finishing a distant second in a one-mile and 70-yard allowance in which she beat stablemate and third-place finisher #3 Amazingness (7-2) (who re-opposes here) by a nose. The Gary Patrick pupil makes a rider switch to Deshawn Parker, a 20% winner with routes, but the favorite can be beaten by #9 Holy Justice (5-1), who most recently came home fifth in the Hoosier Heartland S. by 1 1/2 lengths. Leading jockey at Horseshoe, Marcelino Pedroza, will hop in the irons, giving Holy Justice a chance at an upset while cutting back in distance.

We'll also add #8 Speedy Delivery (4-1) in our Daily Double wager. The filly finished two lengths behind Holy Justice, who finished third, in the 1 1/16-mile Hoosier Breeders Sophomore S. in June but held a one-length lead through the second call before giving way in the stretch. The cut back in distance can help the Tale of the Cat granddaughter, who is 2-for-3 at Horseshoe.

$4 Daily Double: 8,9 with 3 ($8)