Stars Adorn Breeders Crown Elims; Pegasus Entries Fly In Indiana
It is week one of two for the Breeders Crown (BC) and we cover the best possible action for bettors from start to finish in our two dedicated blogs. The Breeders Crown Countdown (BCC) and this feature blog share reports for the eliminations this week and the championship finals at Woodbine/Mohawk (WoMo) next week. Once again we work with the Hambletonian Society as official reporters for the public while we are the exclusive source for Twinspires bettors.
There are some co-features this week with stakes events at Philly and Hoosier and our weekly edition of the never-ending TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch (H2W) list. Check the H2W for numerous outside contenders that offer many winners and pump up exotics as list members finish in crucial exotic-ticket spots.
PHILLY FROSH PIT
We start the weekend off on the afternoon of Oct. 17 at Philly. Two-year-olds race in three filly trots worth $30,000 each. These puppies, of course, have passed the BC because they were not eligible or not up to snuff.
The first field is just five fillies with two strong morning-line (ML) favorites, Next Level Stuff and Hannah. The third ML choice is strangely luring. Ireland has not yet broken her maiden. It has been 13 tries. Still, she has earned more than $23k getting on the board more than 50 percent of the time. In a small field like this it is no great risk to take a shot on Ireland, a Cantab Hall filly, which is the next best thing about her.
Six gals line up for the second split, where two are maidens. The main deal here, though, is Cocktails N Dreams, whose finishing record is nine for 15, with four wins, and who takes on a very soft group.
Filly trot three is a sextet dominated by Per Engblom’s Queen Of The Hill. Her earnings dwarf those of her foes, as well as her three wins for nine starts is the best percentage in the field. Engblom left her out of the BC for reasons unknown, but how positive is that? Scream for a longshot with a better chance than her odds will display; scream for Diamond Nina in this pass-or-play situation.
Frosh-filly pacers offer two $44,500 Liberty Bell splits on the same program. Six go to post in round one with the same pair of excuses for not racing in Canada. We pass on the three obvious ML choices, going instead with outside contender Firefly. She’s a decent daughter of Somebeachsomewhere under the care of Bruce Saunders. Her price and chances are equal and worth the shot.
Concluding the Libety Bell clangs this afternoon is a field of seven filly pacers. The crowd will tip in the direction of Arden Hanover, but we are standing steady in support of Git Go. The Captaintreacherous daughter is in a great spot to take only her second win of the season, having hit the board four in nine starts among tougher competition.
Hoosier’s Pegasus series presents sophs in two divisions each (worth $32k plus) on Oct. 18. For the sake of time and space, here are our suggested contenders.
Three-year-old colt trot
The first division brings back a major colt we supported in sires-stakes (INSS) finals—Martini Show. We will take him again this week.
The second division features Swandre The Giant as the focus, but not for us. We continue to try to topple the state champ and figure on doing it with Homer Hall.
Three-year-old filly trot
In the first split, from last week’s INSS, we spot three we like—Strip It Down AS, Summit City Swan and shipping in from Philly (last week on H2W) is Nomo Volo.
In episode two we hang our hopes upon American Kronos, Julie Miller is in town and her filly is on a positive percentage spin late in the season.
Three-year-old colt pace
An INSS bet back in the first division for this field is Rockie Got Framed.
Division two is a slam-dunk pass-or-play situation with Hickfromfrenchlick.
Three-year-old filly pace
Direct from the Courageous Lady at Northfield last week, our choice then is our choice in the first division—Rose Run Uptowngal.
The other split for these is the subversive Perch, hopefully at a decent price.
The Saturday, Oct. 19 eliminations at WoMo feature most of the best in the sophomore divisions on both gaits, as well as two Mare Trot elims. Buying into the soph-colt pace are Southwind Ozzi and Century Farroh, and that is where we will begin.
Though the opinions are abounding, we stand with the top colt of the season in this division, Bettors Wish. In the second elim, he towers over the six others, including Southwind Ozzi. As strongly as we supported Bettors Wish, we dismissed “Ozzi” since his glory and money were earned without sufficient competition from the division’s top colts. Most recently he lost at Lexington to a 9-1 shot in a mile that should have been a cinch for him. He may make the final but do not be surprised if Blood Money or Can’t Beach That out-race him in this elim.
As for the first split, the other soph supplement, Century Farroh, should surely make the final but to win he must put away Captain Crunch. Though a firm disappointment in the win deparment for many, Captain Crunch still earns well and should get into the final. But do not be surprised if he turns out to just make it, since the likes of Dancin Lou, Best In Show and Stag Party must be respected.
Stag Party has been in the mix at great odds and we have found solid cash from his performances as the public continually dismisses him, but here he will be soaring late as the others sizzle early and could avenge his season’s woes with a win that gets him into the final (but that is as far as he goes, say we).
Warrawee Ubeaut has had her off nights but all in all she continues to show resilience. In this one-sprint elim for the filly pacers, it is difficult to imagine this will be a bad night for her. She will make the final. Is there a looming upset, however?
We want to suppose there may be a chance for price and purpose with Queen Of The Pride. She has been racing better than her odds and with a decent trip from behind or commanding fractions on the lead she could supply supporters with a mighty price that sends her to the final. (Treacherous Reign and Sunny Dee accepted byes).
Two elims will produce the final’s field. In the first elim, though it seems Evident Beauty should have the winning moves, we like an upset here by Only Take Cash. The Bob McIntosh-trained filly has never been off the board and on her home turf could make this elim her top effort of the season.
The second elim may give some unfair odds to Asiago on the outside. The bulk of bets will pour in for When Dovescry and Millies Possesion and we will let them, taking a good price on Asiago for what we may not be offered for her in next week’s final.
Greenshoe and Forbidden Trade took byes, leaving their strongest foes, Green Manalishi S and Gimpanzee to earn a spot in the final from this single elim. Marcus Melander’s pair is hard to deny but here we will make another case for Gimpanzee.
Sans Greenshoe, Gimpanzee has no excuse not guiding this field from start to finish. Certainly, he can get a comfy spot behind “Green” and Marseille (who is bound to fire early) but that should just allow him to win by more lengths.
OPEN MARE TROT
A surprising two elims are on tap for this division. The busy trotting ladies, sans Atlanta, who raced with the males next week (including foreign giant Bold Eagle), will all be challenged in this pair.
The first elim makes many good cases for each involved. We see outsider Top Expectations as a contender that will offer a good return because somehow the public will overestimate one or two in a fairly evenly matched test.
The second elim will focus upon Manchego. She has performed well in the series and lately she has reminded many that she likes this time of year. The price, however, may be prohibitive for us. We feel the public will greatly overlook Weslynn Dancer. She has chances that are apt to be better than her odds
Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last) time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.
10/19/19, +Royal Machery R13
10/17/19, Dalianna R4
10/18/19, Directing Traffic R4; Elysium Seelster R12; Colonys Best R13
10/19/19, Velocity Lana R1; Full On Rocknroll R7; Sammy The Bull N R7; Hilltop Ginger R9; Cyclone Kiwi N R10
10/17/19, Tuxedo R4; Jeffs Journey R5; Lonewolf Currier R10; Mac Raider R11
10/19/19, +Northern Jack R4; Reigning Deo R5
10/18/19, Winning American R3; Cruising In Style R7
10/19/19, RJP R10
10/17/19, Eagle Pass R1; Shamderock R1; +American Champ R5; Hasty Western R7; Ladys Big Stormont R8
10/19/19, Amarettigone R3; Libbys Idea R5; +Nutmegs Yankee R6; +Miss B R12; +Campagne Shower R14
10/18/19, +Faith Prevails R1; Crystal Rei R3
10/17/19, +Tyson R5; Shivered R8
10/17/19, +Burkes Bandit R2
10/19/19, +R Bazingga R1; Torrid Bromac N R2
10/18/19, Warrawee Usain R4; Ginger R11
10/17/19, Wild West R1; +Love Trumps Hate R2; +Linkjack Hanover R5; Favorite Uncle R10
10/18/19, Neverforgetwhour R8
10/19/19, Quality Bud R11