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Homeracing

Staying North of the Border to play the Pick 5 Carryover Tuesday at Fort Erie

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

July 5th, 2016

If Sunday’s exciting #QP16 card at Woodbine got your blood pumping for exciting Canadian Thoroughbred action, then the good news is you didn’t have to wait long for a reason to jump back into the Northern pools because Fort Erie has a $16,418 Pick 5 carryover on races 4-8 Tuesday.

Fort Erie handled $8,949 on the Pick 5 last Tuesday, and should do 5x-10x that today with the added money. Even if Fort Erie handles $50,000 then there is still a positive expectation on the bet, and if by some miracle it does $100,000 then the takeout is still only about 10% with a lot of hopefully dead money in the pool.

We’ll know where we stand early because my most likely winners are in races 4 & 5—legs 1 & 2, respectively, in the sequence that closes out the 8-race card. I’m looking to roll a hard ten (5-5) in those two races and then will be much deeper as the sequence continues.

One horse I’d love to be live to in race 8 is #12 Grandys Got Gold, who is one of only three entrants in this $5,000 maiden claimer who has blitzed at least a 90 Brisnet.com early pace rating, and he’s the only one to have done it more than 2 times. If Grandys Got Gold gets brave from the outside, maybe he doesn’t stop at 8-to-1 morning line.

The penultimate leg is race 7, and this is the toughest race in the sequence for me, but we’ll highlight two potentially big balloons coming in off around 2-year layoffs: #5 Bold Cry & #7 Unwinding At Work.

Bold Cry broke his maiden to close his three-year-old campaign then went on the shelf for 25 ½ months following his four-year-old debut. Now a gelding, a return to his maiden form contends here at a big price.

Unwinding at Work has trained locally for a conditioner with big numbers who managed to attract 26% jockey Christopher Griffith. He’s 30-to-1 on the morning line but suspect the first flash on the odds board could tell the story here.

In race 6 (leg 3), Awesome Dolly is an interesting debut runner for Nick Gonzales, who trains for breeder Adena Springs and who will leg up 6-for-16-at-the-meet apprentice (5-pound bug) Aimee Auger. This is another one where the tote board is likely to tell the story, and I’ll want my money already in via the Pick 5.

Good luck to those playing this sequence!

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