Handicapping Sunday's Pick 5 at Ellis Park

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

August 7th, 2020

An excellent 10-race card will be hosted by Ellis Park on Sunday. The $200,000 Ellis Park Derby is one of four stakes events on the slate, with each helping comprise the late Pick 5.

Race 6 -- Debutante S.

A dozen juvenile fillies will go postward in an ultra-competitive 7-furlong dash. #4 Crazy Beautiful (3-1) is a wildcard in the field for McPeek exiting a stout win on the green on debut, and $250,000 Liam’s Map filly could be any kind on the surface change with Bejarano in the silks.

#8 Xtrema (15-1) is another who could be a fine prospect making a surface switch. Desormeaux pupil won going away on the synthetic at Golden Gate at first asking, and the Exaggerator filly will be a contender if she takes to the dirt. #9 Hipnotizada (7-2) has put in a pair of smart maiden races at Delaware Park, and she is a must use in my view.

Trainer Ian Wilkes doesn’t saddle many first-out winners, so #10 Fabricate (8-1) will surely be included, as will Norm Casse’s #12 Puye Timing (8-1), a game graduate at Keeneland second out.

Race 7 -- Allowance

First-level allowance tilt for the boys is where my single of the sequence will come. The 1 1/16-mile test lacks class and early speed, and I think #3 On Base (6-1) will get a dream trip in his first for Hartman. Empire Maker colt has shown nice improvement since adding blinkers, and the dark bay will be in range throughout beneath Beschizza.

Race 8 -- Audubon Oaks

Sophomore fillies will travel 7 furlongs in the affair and I will spread in this leg. Beaumont (G3) runner-up #4 Sconsin (7-2), Asmussen’s #5 Casual (5-1), Forward Gal (G3) runner-up #6 Street of Dreams (10-1), and Iowa Oaks (G3) third-placer #7 Ocean Breeze (8-1) all make sense in a deep field.

Race 9 -- Groupie Doll S.

Fillies and mares will travel one-mile on the dirt led by Grade 1 victress #12 Street Band (3-1). Istan filly is winless this season, and also must overcome the wide post, but she is the class of the field for conditioner Larry Jones.

#1 Lady Apple (4-1) is a multiple graded winner with a cozy rail draw for Asmussen. She figures on class alone while making her Ellis Park bow. #6 With Dignity (8-1) hinted that she could be a stakes runner after a pair of wins to start her career in her sophomore season, which concluded with an allowance tally at Keeneland. Ian Wilkes pupil is training like a horse ready to pop a big one in her 4-year-old debut under Leparoux.

Race 10 -- Ellis Park Derby

An overflow field of 13 is entered for the 2020 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series event. Bluegrass (G2) romper #4 Art Collector (4-5) is the obvious one to beat and a clear must-use for Drury. The peaking Bernardini colt will be a popular single to close out the card.

I will also include a flier in #1 Trident Hit (30-1). Walsh pupil won at 7 panels at first asking utilizing a last-to-first move at Churchill Downs, prior to finishing a decent second in a recent allowance tilt at Indiana Grand. Tiznow colt adds blinkers and smoked a bullet three-eighths on the surface on Wednesday.

50-cent Pick 5 Wager

  • 4,8,9,10,12 with 3 with 4,5,6,7 with 1,6,12 with 1,4 = $60