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Homeracing

Super Prices Targeted Across The Board; Power Plays Poised To Present Big Profit Selected Features On Fire

Profile Picture: Frank Cotolo

March 8th, 2018

More inclement weather is forecast to sweep through North America this week but we’ll stick with a race-heavy schedule, even though the weather is an exact science compared to handicapping horse races.

We know this for a fact—Daylight Savings Time begins this weekend and night racing continues with more light through summer. Whether or not March will go out like a lamb is another unpredictable equation but harness racing is poised to launch some high-level features at the foot of spring.

While we get to choose the features, we take on another weekend, posting many races with all types of wagers with our unique approaches targeting high-price payouts with Partners For Picks (PFP) and Power Plays (PPS), and the usual across-the-board punches.

The horses-to-watch (H2W) list suggestions remain as serious considerations as the features, so do your own handicapping and then consider our H2W selections.

POWER PLAYS

Saratoga / Race 5
Thursday, March 8

Here are two contenders from one of last week’s exotic attacks. It was Partners For Picks (PFP). This week we tag them for a Power Plays’ event, including an exacta, trifecta and a superfecta. We’ve added two more for the exotic mixes. They appear in post-position order.

Flyhawk Rhiannon is four with only one race to her resume. She is a daughter of RC Royalty, a productive New York sire, and if her stride stays true she will surprise those bettors who judge her too early in her career.

Seven Roses was third last week at 5-2 after being hanged in an early duel. The lightly raced Chapter Seven mare won her first event in a sharp mile at Monticello at four. Her Meadowlands race this season is a good one at this level and she will have another big shot at a second win in her dozen starts.

Although Time Is Fleeting returns to launch from post 8, he comes from the same race as Seven Roses. This is his second race at three after a mild frosh season. A son of Lucky Chucky, we make note again that he won his maiden jaunt after leaving the Trond Smedshammer barn. The 8 hole may not be as much of a problem as the bettors will measure, since he is not a proven loser and his few races in 2017 included far more talent then he faces here. 

Speeding Star is an obvious choice among a quartet for exotics but he can be compromised for the win by aforementioned trotters with better odds. He has two races behind him this season with a place and a show and seems to sail smoothly on the trot.

FEATURES~FEATURES~FEATURES

Saratoga / Race 10
Thursday, March 8

Last week we made a good case for Back The Bank, though he hardly raced in that mile, trudging along pointlessly. He needed that race more than we were hoping and although he failed, his Ohio resume from 2017 exists no matter what he did.

Back The Bank is an Ohio-bred that has a sparkling record on half-mile tracks in the Buckeye State, including a visit to “Jug” week’s state-bred action and a second in a state-bred final on Northfield’s Flying Turns. This is a well-bred trotter (Break The Bank) that should return to his frosh form and if that starts now you will be gifted with a double-digit price. 

PARTNERS FOR PICKS

Yonkers / Races 4, 5, 6
Friday, March 9

Let’s go for a PFP here, a Pick 3, with its second leg starting a Pick 4. The usual single-race exotics apply to each leg.

Leg one, Race 4
We’ll be starting with a horse that has been waiting to have its second chance on the H2W. Since Franco Rayner N was a contender then he is surely a contender now. The track handicapper agrees, making his the 2-1 choice. If you agree, you may have a single for the ticket. However, we are going add Elrama, a beaten favorite that steps up a notch after stepping down a notch and has excuses in two of his most recent races. We don’t agree with the ML here, as he is forecast to go off around 20-1.

Leg two, Race 5
At Yonkers, when the 1 and 2 posts are the ML first and second choices, people come out of the woodwork to wager on them. But it’s all too obvious to back for a decent Pick 3 or the start of a Pick 4, so we look beyond the obvious. From that sextet, we like the chances of Ideal Princess. Her step-up attempt last time was ruined by a jump at the start, so we’ll toss that out. Before that she was second at 3-1, beaten by the top ML choice here. So, this is less a class battle than the ML odds would like you to believe. Ideal Princess should have a decent price on her head, even if she winds up the third choice.

Leg three, Race 6
This is the $40,000 Open Handicap, offering some of the best pacers on the grounds. If you look beyond the obvious ML choices, we ask you pay attention to Safe From Terror. Her recent affair hanged her out as the favorite and it cost her a lot, finishing eighth. But she was a wire-to-wire winner on Feb. 16 at this level as the public choice. Tonight she is assigned a 10-1 ML but we refuse to punish her to that extent and take her hoping the ML sticks.

FEATURES~FEATURES~FEATURES

Yonkers / Race 2
Saturday, March 10

March 3’s Power Plays at Yonkers included a Azul Pool going off at 11-1, an overlay that deserved the attention we gave it. Azul Pool beat the favorite in the race, finishing sixth (by only 2 lengths) to the favorite’s seventh (3 lengths behind him). Azul Pool made two moves, falling back and then gaining too late. We liked him for that race because, for one, he was dropping a level after finishing second in this class, Azul Pool still appears ready to strike. He raced well before dropping and won last at this level.

FEATURES~FEATURES~FEATURES

Yonkers / Race 5
Saturday, March 10

In the same Power Plays race from March 3, Bettorever finished third after a steady first-over trip at 7-1. In this event he certainly should go off supported more than that. We noted then that Bettorever “loves to cash checks and has been a member of exotic combos in many efforts since last November.” He followed through with a check for finishing third, completing the $178-plus trifecta. He charts to cash again, this time for the top check.

POWER PLAYS

Northfield / Race 6
Saturday, March 10

Here come two horses from were on the H2W list last week that wind up in this event. So, we endorse them here, among the quartet (we add two) for a Power Plays’ exotics attack. Here they are in alphabetic order.

Caviart Scarlett finished second at the even-money favorite. She flashed away early and the wide move to get the top assisted in taking the 1 ½ lengths she needed to finish first. She certainly will be supported here but could offer bettor odds considering the competition.

Audrey Anna was third as the fourth choice, pacing well on the outside around two of the turns and losing second by a thread. She was more than worth it at 5-1 and contributed to a $60 trifecta that would have paid a lot less had she not been there.

Wake N Bake need only continue a good in-the-money percentage, now over 50 percent for the season, to play a role in exotics. Although she is the top money-earning gal in this fray, she may be overlooked a bit for the aforementioned.

Cowgirl Chic is the key to a larger payoff, since the crowd is bound to see her outside post as a detriment. In actuality, “Chic” is just about even in talent with these and can not be dismissed as easily as we feel the crowd will measure her.


H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last) time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W LIST

Buffalo
3/10/18, Lucky Pablo R4; +Whosurpapa R5; +Littlebitaclass R5; Linkjack Hanover R6; Rebel Soldier R9

Cal-Expo
3/9/18, Lovers Holiday R11
3/10/18, Don Lindy R4; Lilmessinaround R6; Jazzmanian Devil R8; Mint To Cruise R9

Fraser
3/9/18, Gadorable R6; Starry Eyes R8; Risque Miss R10; Lissoy R12
3/11/18, Mr Glender R1; Chaseminkifyoudare R2; Brand Security R5; Coin Vault R7

Freehold
3/10/18, Mommas Artist R2; +Ricimer A R4

Meadowlands
3/9/18, Bootswiththefur R6

Meadows
3/9/18, +Trixie Dust R7
3/12/18, +Smirking R3

Miami
3/9/18, +Cams Lucky Star R4
3/11/18, Pine Dream R8

Monticello
3/8/18, +Thor R8
3/12/18, +Samsawinner R8

Northfield
3/10/18, +St Lads Gidget R4; Wynnfrith R4; +Steuben Cindy R8
3/12/18, Photo Mass R9

Northville
3/9/18, Two Beat R1; +Bobbys Choice R3; ++Richerthanrayno R5

Pompano
3/10/18, +Country Baran R5

Saratoga
3/9/18, +Awake My Soul ae R2; +Hanover The Art R4; +Heavenly Bet R6; +Angel Or Terror R9

Woodbine
3/9/18, Franschoek R2; +Treasure Writer R5
3/10/18, Pepe Di Jesolo R3; Hope And Faith R6; Ready Any Time R8
 

 

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