Systematic Profits

Profile Picture: Derek Simon

Derek Simon

October 5th, 2012

(Click on image to enlarge)1) Consider only the horse(s) with the highest Brisnet Power Rating.

NOTE: This instantly puts one on a “live” horse based on traditional handicapping criteria — speed, pace, class, etc.

2) Play qualifying horses provided their final odds are greater than or equal to their morning line odds multiplied by two. For example, if Horse A has the highest Brisnet Power Rating in the field and is 5-2 on the morning line, we would bet him/her at odds of 5-1 or greater.

NOTE: The purpose of this rule is to isolate overlays. And, as demonstrated in my last column “Thinking Small,” the morning line can be helpful in this endeavor.

Of course, the real fun of coming up with a handicapping angle is applying it. Hence, I’ve scoured a bunch of race cards on Friday and Saturday and have come up with the following potential plays:

(Click on image to enlarge)
For those who like to do their own handicapping — with a little help — I also produced my Win Factor Report (computerized fair odds line) for the races at Hawthorne and Keeneland on Friday and Saturday: