Taking On the TwinSpires.com Mob to Win $1-Million
Going into the Rebel Stakes this weekend, the game is one versus 81, as each of the remaining 82 players hope to outlast the 81 others for the $1-million top prize as well as the best chance at 2015 Kentucky Derby and Oaks tickets plus more shares in the $10,000 prize pool.
The 82 players going into the Rebel represent 3.5% of the starting group, for an average attrition rate in each of the 8 races of 65.9%. The favorite hit the board in seven consecutive races before finishing fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby.
If this average attrition rate continues, then there is a 56% chance that at least one person will be alive for the $1-million going into the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and a 42.4% chance that at least one person will score the top prize.
Personally, I’m five-for-eight, having missed the Risen Star (Rise Up), the Gotham (Harpoon), and the Tampa Bay Derby (Hy Kodiak Warrior). Five-for-eight doesn’t sound great when 3.5% of players are still a perfect eight-for-eight, but it’s actually the most likely outcome from eight trials with any one success having a 65.9% chance of occurring.
And while eight-for-eight is fantastic, it’s statistically more likely than someone going zero-, one, or two-for-eight COMBINED.
One aspect of SHOWdown that did conclude this past weekend was our “last longest” Twitter contest in which @JBOswald68 and @fakemaven split the $500 prize after both advanced past the San Felipe Stakes with Midnight Hawk and California Chrome, respectively, but were eliminated in the Tampa Bay Derby with Conquest Titan and Cousin Stephen, respectively.