The 15-1 shot you need to play in Turfway's $80,821 Single 6 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

March 20th, 2021

The Single 6 jackpot at Turfway Park heads into the weekend with a carryover of $80,821, having survived an unpredictable sequence on Friday by the narrowest of margins.

Longshots starting at 24-1 and 38-1 both reached the winner’s circle during Friday’s Single 6, and heading into the final race, eight of the 10 possible outcomes would have produced a full payout of $104,164.66. But by the margin of a neck, 7-10 favorite Inclusive beat 7-1 longshot English Channel to avoid a unique winning ticket, instead triggering a pair of winning tickets that returned $11,671.62 apiece.

It goes to show you can’t take anything for granted at Turfway, where unpredictable results are par for the course. Just 51 horses started in Friday’s Single 6 sequence—hardly an unmanageable number—yet the jackpot nearly went down. Saturday’s sequence looks tougher with a maximum of 61 starters before scratches, so there’s certainly some appeal to playing longshots in search of a six-figure payoff.

Race 8 looks like a great place to start, even though it’s technically the finale of the evening. The event in question is a six-furlong, $15,000 claiming race for non-winners of two races lifetime. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this class level and distance is a 75, a figure eight of the 14 entrants have matched or exceeded. A few others have come close, so there are plenty of contenders fast enough to vie for victory on their best day—some of them double-digit longshots.

This is all the more significant when you consider how morning line favorite #6 All Come True (3-1) has yet to reach the 75 plateau. A debut winner sprinting on turf in France, All Come True posted Brisnet Speed ratings of 72 and 58 when finishing 11th and ninth in a pair of one-mile allowance optional claiming races at Gulfstream Park earlier this winter.

All Come True will face easier competition at Turfway, and transitioning to the barn of Jonathan Thomas (a 44% winner at Turfway this meet) can be considered a positive. But the fact All Come True hasn’t factored in her first two North American starts is cause for pause, and switching from turf to Tapeta is another significant hurdle facing the favorite.

In short, there’s a real chance something unexpected could happen in the Saturday at finale. One could do worse than back a horse like #5 Silver Maple (15-1), who suffered from a troubled start and a wide trip when finishing ninth for a $30,000 claiming tag in her Turfway debut 2 1/2 months ago. The Eric Reed trainee actually made a solid mid-race move before flattening out, and a more favorable trip against easier competition could trigger a much-improved performance.

Good luck!