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The 2017 Keeneland Fall Meet Betting Guide FREE Download

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TwinSpires Staff

October 6th, 2017

Keeneland Race Meet Betting Guide

The fall meeting at the beautiful Keeneland racetrack October 6-28 is loaded with high-quality racing. There are 17 graded stakes races at the Lexington, Kentucky track – and of these, nine are Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.

This Keeneland FallStars betting guide offers information to help handicap a confident bet.

Keeneland Stakes Schedule

Date Race Grade Purse Restrictions Surface Distance
Friday, Oct 6 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix II $250,000 3&UP Dirt 6 Furlongs
Friday, Oct 6 Darley Alcibiades I $400,000 F2YO Dirt 8 1/2 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 7 Woodford II $150,000 3&UP Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 7 Thoroughbred Club of America II $250,000 F&M 3&UP Dirt 6 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 7 First Lady I $400,000 F&M 3&UP Dirt 8 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 7 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity I $500,000 2YO Dirt 8 1/2 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 7 Shadwell Turf Mile I $1,000,000 3&UP Turf 8 Furlongs
Sunday, Oct 8 Dixiana Bourbon III $250,000 2YO Turf 8 1/2 Furlongs
Sunday, Oct 8 Juddmonte Spinster I $500,000 F&M 3&UP Dirt 9 Furlongs
Wednesday, Oct 11 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine I $150,000 F2YO Turf 8 1/2 Furlongs
Friday, Oct 13 Buffalo Trace Franklin County III $100,000 F&M 3&UP Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 14 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup I $500,000 F3YO Turf 9 Furlongs
Thursday, Oct 19 Sycamore III $100,000 3&UP Turf 12 Furlongs
Friday, Oct 20 Pin Oak Valley View III $150,000 F3YO Turf 8 1/2 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 21 Lexus Raven Run II $250,000 F3YO Dirt 7 Furlongs
Sunday, Oct 22 Rood & Riddle Dowager III $125,000 F&M 3&UP Turf 12 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 28 Hagyard Fayette II $200,000 3&UP Dirt 9 Furlongs

 

Keeneland Betting Guide Graded Stakes Overview

by Alastair Bull

The challenge races, with the Breeders’ Cup race that their victors earn a berth in, are:
Oct. 6     Alcibiades Stakes (G1)                                                            Juvenile Fillies
Oct. 6     Phoenix Stakes (G2)                                                                Sprint
Oct. 7     Breeders’ Futurity (G1)                                                         Juvenile
Oct. 7     First Lady Stakes (G1)                                                             Filly & Mare Turf
Oct. 7     Turf Mile (G1)                                                                              Mile
Oct. 7     Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2)              Filly & Mare Sprint
Oct. 8     Bourbon Stakes (G3)                                                               Juvenile Turf
Oct. 8     Spinster Stakes (G1)                                                                Distaff
Oct. 11  Jessamine Stakes (G3)                                                            Juvenile Fillies Turf

Usually, the winners take their place at the Breeders’ Cup, so these are good races to watch for potential winners at that meeting. Last year, Classic Empire won both the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, while Turf Mile third-place finisher Tourist went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

The Phoenix Stakes is a particularly good guide to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, with Runhappy (2015) and Work All Week (2014) both completing the double. Also a worthy guide is the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes – three of its winners (Informed Decision, Dubai Majesty, and Groupie Doll) and two placegetters then went on to win the Filly & Mare Sprint.

The Spinster Stakes, First Lady Stakes, and Turf Mile are also historically good guides to their respective Breeders’ Cup races. Only the Bourbon Stakes and the Jessamine Stakes of the Challenge races have yet to produce a Breeders’ Cup winner, and their time will surely come.

One other graded stakes race is held in the first week at Keeneland, the Woodford Stakes (G2) for turf sprinters. It isn’t a “win and you’re in” race, but some of its contestants may well feature in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint; the 2014 Woodford winner No Nay Never subsequently finished second in the Turf Sprint.

The BC qualifiers may end then, but the high-quality racing doesn’t stop, as there are still seven other graded stakes races at the Keeneland fall meet. Five of these seven are on turf, including four for female gallopers - the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) for 3-year-old fillies on turf at 1 1/8 miles Oct. 14, the 5 ½-furlong Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes (G3) for fillies and mares Oct. 13, the 1 ½-mile Dowager Stakes (G3) for fillies and mares Oct. 22, and the 1 1/16-mile Valley View Stakes (G3) for 3-year-old fillies Oct. 20.

The other graded races at Keeneland are the the Sycamore Stakes (G3) on turf at 1 ½ miles Oct. 19, Raven Run Stakes (G2) for 3-year-old sprinters on dirt Oct. 21, and the 1 1/8-mile Fayette Stakes (G2) on dirt Oct. 28.
Keeneland usually attracts good-sized fields, which means returns are often higher. It will be good value for all players.

Keeneland usually attracts good-sized fields, which means returns are often higher. It will be good value for all players.

 

Keeneland At A Glance for Previous Meet

Data is through Monday April 28, 2017

Avg. Winning Odds: 4.80 – 1
Favorite Win%: 35%, Favorite Itm%: 72%
 
EXOTICS PAYOFF
Exacta 90.16
Daily Double 75.26
Trifecta 770.8
Pick 3 529.05
Superfecta 4,884.55
Pick 6 31,639.57
Pick 4 6,475.03
Pick 5 41,957.47
Super High Five 10,997.60

 

TRACK BIAS MEET(04/07 – 04/28
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
 
6.0fDirt 21 33% E Outside  
7.0fDirt 16 31% E Mid/Out  
1 1/16mDirt 20 25% E Middle  
1 1/8mDirt 8 25% E/P Rail/Ins  
Turf Sprint 7 14% S Rail  
Turf Routes 37 16% P Rail/Ins  

 

TRACK BIAS WEEK(04/22 – 04/28)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
 
6.0fDirt 9 56% E Outside  
7.0fDirt 7 43% E Rail  
1 1/16mDirt 4 25% E Rail/Ins  
1 1/8mDirt 3 33% E/P Outside  
Turf Sprint 1 100% E Middle  
Turf Routes 14 21% P Rail/Ins  

 

Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
 
HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’16-‘ 17
Win%
McLaughlin Kiaran P. 6 5 0 0 3.95 2 20%
Pletcher Todd A. 11 5 1 1 1.7 4 23%
Lynch Brian A. 10 4 1 3 2.77 3 17%
Manley Steve 3 2 1 0 5.13 1 17%
Brown Chad C. 5 2 3 0 1.42 2 25%
Amoss Thomas M. 6 2 0 0 7.13 1 26%
Toner James J. 6 2 0 0 9.65 1 18%
 
HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’16-‘ 17
Win%
Lanerie Corey J. 32 8 7 6 5.91 5 16%
Rosario Joel 15 6 2 3 3.87 3 16%
Velazquez John R. 5 3 0 1 1.76 2 20%
 
COLD TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’16-‘ 17
Win%
LoPresti Charles 13 0 2 0 20.75 0 13%
Rice Wayne W. 13 0 0 2 66.49 0 8%
Pessin Neil L. 10 0 2 1 22.56 1 10%
 
COLD JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’16-‘ 17
Win%
Gilligan Jack 18 0 3 1 33.79 0 12%
Graham James 13 0 1 2 30.13 0 11%
Lopez Paco 12 0 1 1 10.66 1 22%

 

The Keeneland Fall Meet Betting Guide offers information and analysis on the meet's top races. This PDF will aid in selecting better bets for the popular botique meet. Save this link and download the PDF, or print, so you can take this unique content with you wherever you go.

TwinSpires offers a free betting guides library here, which holds a wealth of educational pieces to grow your betting insight.

 

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