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Homeracing

The best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating is beating the meeting so far at Keeneland

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

October 11th, 2016

It's not an easy game, but it's sometimes easier than we make it out to be.

Through the first 30 races of the Keeneland fall meeting, flat betting the horse with the best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating would have returned +4% on your money. It's tough to envision that continuing through an entire meeting (even a boutique) one with so many maiden and turf races, but there are additional clues available as to when to strike on this angle.

If you limit your bets to dirt sprints (for the purpose of this discussion, all one-turn races on dirt at Keeneland), then the ROI balloons to +73.5%. $2 to win on the best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating in each of the 15 dirt sprints would have cost you $30 and left you with $52.05. That is an incredible number even with the short sample size.

And make no mistake, it is a very small sample size, so the lesson isn’t so much “gosh, I should have just bet every top last-out Speed Rating” but more “this is an easily identifiable indicator of a horse who A) is ready to run, and B) could offer some value.

In the interest of full disclosure, I must point out that another pet stat of mine—the performance of the top-ranked horse by Brisnet.com Prime Power—is not doing as well at the Keeneland meeting, with a -44.5% ROI across all 30 races and an unbelievably bad -78% in dirt sprints.

Normally, these figures are typically more harmonious, and my hypothesis as to their discord to kickoff the Keeneland meeting is that Prime Power is overvaluing the class of shippers from, say Churchill or Belmont/Saratoga, whereas Speed is Speed.

As for how the track is playing, there were only two gate-to-wire winners in 18 dirt races and none beyond six furlongs (0-for-12). After going 6-for-10 on opening day, favorites won 7 of 20 races on Saturday and Sunday, but they are on a tear finishing in the money with just 4 betting choices failing to hit the trifecta.

KEENELAND AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 4.92 - 1
Favorite Win%: 43%, Favorite Itm%: 87%
EXOTICS PAYOFF
Exacta 74.79
Daily Double 79.35
Trifecta 601.18
Pick 3 747.24
Superfecta 4,491.10
Pick 6 3,394.80
Pick 4 15,572.60
Pick 5 58,130.33
Super High Five 31,556.27
 
TRACK BIAS WEEK(10/07 - 10/09)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
 
6.0fDirt 6 33% E Rail/Ins  
7.0fDirt 5 0% P Middle  
1 1/16mDirt 5 0% E/P Rail  
1 1/8mDirt 2 0% E/P Rail/Ins  
Turf Sprint 1 0% E/P Outside  
Turf Routes 7 29% E/P Rail  
Who's HOT, Who's NOT
HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
'15-' 16
Win%
Motion H. Graham 6 3 0 0 7.53 0 15%
Calhoun W. Bret 8 3 0 1 7.00 0 21%
Kenneally Eddie 6 2 0 2 5.82 1 15%
HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
'15-' 16
Win%
Leparoux Julien R. 19 6 2 1 9.23 4 17%
COLD TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
'15-' 16
Win%
Lukas D. Wayne 14 0 2 1 23.28 0 9%
Arnold, II George R. 12 0 0 2 22.32 0 12%

 

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