The best longshot to bet in the Kentucky Derby

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

September 4th, 2020

Trying to find value in the 146th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) is tough if you, like me, think #17 Tiz the Law (3-5) and #16 Honor A. P. (5-1) are standouts. The former has reeled off a trio of Grade 1 wins in succession, and his tour-de-force in the Travers (G1) last time out was as powerful a performance as we will likely witness for the remainder of 2020.

Honor A. P., winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) two starts back, has a frame, stride, and running style seemingly perfect for running 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs. The John Shirreffs trainee might have faltered in his latest showing, but he was always pointing to the “Run for the Roses,” and the son of Honor Code will be a formidable foe—even to the heavy favorite—with his best effort.

I don’t see a whole lot of separation with the other 16 contenders in the field, but I do fancy a few longshots that will challenge for a placing in the Derby, especially #13 Attachment Rate (50-1). Trained by Dale Romans, the son of Hard Spun looks to be rounding into a great form cycle and could offer excellent value at huge odds.

Article Image

Attachment Rate (Coglianese Photos/Robert Mauhar)

Attachment Rate owns just a maiden victory to his name, but the chestnut has delivered some solid stakes performances this campaign, led by a very good runner-up result in the Ellis Park Derby. The Virginia-bred couldn’t catch the fantastic Art Collector but was more than five lengths clear of his nearest foe, and he has been training on the Churchill Downs strip since the spring.

Attachment Rate has the pedigree to thrive going 1 1/4 miles, as the grandson of Danzig has stamina influences on both sides of his catalog page. In addition, his tactical speed is of great importance in a big field. I expect Joe Talamo to settle the colt in the second or third flight early on, which will give him first run on the bevy of deep closers in the field.

If either of the top two fail to deliver as expected, Attachment Rate is a fine alternative to crash the exacta party at a substantial price. He is the best longshot to bet in the Kentucky Derby.