The Kentucky Derby draw: On morning lines and value

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Ed DeRosa

May 4th, 2016

For better or worse, the Kentucky Derby draw actually does have some element of drama to it regarding who gets the dreaded one hole, but that drama evaporated pretty quickly when Trojan Nation was the second pill pulled and drew the rail. There was some mini drama with expected pacesetter Danzing Candy drawing the outside 20 hole and the 19 post still available until Outwork got the 15, but otherwise there wasn't much change in the likely betting with favorite Nyquist in post 13 and second choice Exaggerator in post 11.

Mike Battaglia made Nyquist 3-to-1 on the morning line and Exaggerator second choice at 8-to-1, and I agree with him on those price, but we disagree on the third choice. He has a trio of co-third choices in Creator, Gun Runner, and Mohaymen, and I have a clear third choice in Mor Spirit, who Battaglia made his sixth choice. On the opposite end of the spectrum, I went ahead and made Trojan Nation the longest shot at 60-to-1 and Oscar Nominated 50-to-1. My thinking there is that Oscar Nominated's win last out and jockey now (Leparoux) will attract more money than Trojan Nation, though Trojan Nation has the more bettable name.

The final column is my fair line, and I have Nyquist and Exaggerator as both a 5-to-1 chance to win, which is why I picked Exaggerator on top. He'as as likely to win as the undefeated champion, but will be at least twice the price. For more information on this pick be sure to follow me on Twitter, watch our videos on Youtube, and check back on this blog.