The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Tipsheet

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November 28th, 2019

The $300,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) will be run at 1 1/16 miles on the main track at Churchill Downs on Saturday and it has attracted a field of nine juveniles. It is part of the 2019/2020 Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) with 10 points going to the winner, four points going to the second-place finisher, two points go to the third-place finisher and one point goes to the fourth-place finisher.

Top Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Picks

  • 5   Silver Prospector
  • 4   South Bend
  • 1   Enforceable
  • 3   Tiz the Law
  • $60 Exacta: 5 with 4
  • $20 Exacta: 5 with 1, 3

#1 Enforceable woke up in his fourth career start when blinkers were added and he won his two-turn dirt debut going nine furlongs at Saratoga in decent time. He came back with a third in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland behind two highly-regarded runners and draws the rail with Florent Geroux. He’s going to have to improve more but saving ground should help him do it after a wide trip last out.

#2 Fighting Seabee won his first two career starts on the turf including a Grade 3 stakes at Saratoga. After running poorly in another turf stakes, he tried dirt for the first time last out and rallied gamely to get up for second. I like that Ken McPeek has been able to get three breezes into him since then and he was game as could be last out.

#3 Tiz the Law beat New York-bred company in his career debut at Saratoga then he came back and romped in the Champagne Stakes (G1) going a one-turn mile. The Champagne has become a difficult race to analyze going forward when the horses go two turns but this son of hot sire Constitution has answered all the questions correctly so far.

#4 South Bend is undefeated in three starts on the dirt including a good win here last out in the Street Sense Stakes going a one-turn mile. My negative is that he was able to sit behind the speed in a perfect situation and then a hole opened up in the deep stretch for him to spurt through. Yes, he did it but I thought a lot of things went his way last out.  

#5 Silver Prospector ran without distinction in his first three starts on the turf but woke up on the dirt at Keeneland going 6 1/2 furlongs in good time. He came back in the Street Sense and battled for the lead down the backside, had three horses loom on his outside going into the turn, battled them to the top of the stretch and even spurted to a short lead before being swallowed up. As long as the race did not knock him out, he should love going two turns where his speed can enable him to separate from the others.

#6 Finnick the Fierce broke his maiden first time out going five furlongs at Indiana Downs then he rallied some here after a rough start when blinkers were added for the first time. He stretches out to two turns while moving up in class for the first time but needs a big leap forward to be part of this.

#7 New Eagle did nothing in his dirt debut at Ellis Park then he broke his maiden on the turf two starts later at Indiana Downs. I can’t really take this move seriously since he will have many turf opportunities coming up soon so what is the point of running here?

#8 Two Last Words broke his maiden first time out going five furlongs in an off-the-turf event then ran evenly in his next two dirt starts. He ran poorly in the Ellis Park Juvenile going seven furlongs so he dropped down to Indiana-bred company where he won a six-furlong stakes then was third going two turns.  

#9 Shotski was soundly beaten in his career debut on the turf at Kentucky Downs but romped by four lengths in his dirt debut next out with blinkers and Lasix added. He was part of the cavalry charge down the middle of the middle of the track in the Street Sense and looks to have enough gate speed to gain some kind of early position.