The luckiest (and unluckiest) draws for the Preakness
The draw is set for the 10 runners in this year’s Preakness S. (G1), as we count down the days to May 21 at Pimlico in Baltimore. The middle jewel of the Triple Crown will feature Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up Epicenter, as well as fourth-place finisher Simplification and Secret Oath, who aims to become the first Kentucky Oaks winner since Rachel Alexandra in 2009 to win the Preakness.
But what is in a number? And which horse has got the lucky, or unlucky, post position? We went through every Preakness since 1909 to find out which stall has the luck factor.
Let’s talk about 6
Post 6 has the most wins in the Preakness (17). It had been on a dry spell this century - up to 2020, only Oxbrow and Big Brown (2008) have won from post 6. However, Rombauer added himself to that list in 2021.
The 1950s were a prime time to be drawn in post 6, as Bold (1951), Hasty Road (1954), and Royal Orbit (1959) all won from that stall.
Close behind post 6 are stalls 4 and 7. Both have produced 14 Preakness winners. The most recent from post 4 was the 2021 winner, Swiss Skydiver, who ended a 13-year drought from that draw.
Justify won from post 7 in 2018, and that run came off the back of winners from Smarty Jones in 2004 and Lookin At Lucky in 2010. In the last 50 years, no draw has produced as many winners as post 7, which has nine, a strike rate of 17.6%.
Post 7 had a purple patch when Sunday Silence (1989), Summer Squall (1990), Timber Country (1995), and Silver Charm (1997) all got the win from the stall in quick succession.
Can post 3 rediscover the 1980s form?
California Chrome shot home from post 3 in 2014, but this draw has not been kind to punters in recent years. In the last 33 years, only California Chrome and Prairie Bayou have won from post 3.
There were some halcyon days for stall 3 in the 1980s, when it swept up in the Preakness Stakes. Codex (1980), Deputed Testimony (1983), Gate Dancer (1984), and Risen Star (1988) all hit the winning post in front from stall 3.
Is the inside draw making a comeback?
From 1980 to 2014, there were just two winners from the two inside posts — Snow Chief from stall 2 in 1986 and Tabasco Cat from stall 1 in 1994.
But things may be looking up.
American Pharoah won from stall 1 in 2015, and that was followed by Cloud Computing from stall 2 in 2017 and War of Will from stall 1 in 2019. Could this be the start of a comeback from the inside draws?
The curse of 10
Almost every position has had a winner since the turn of the century. The one that hasn’t? Post 10.
Real Quiet’s win in 1998 was the last time a winner came from stall 10, and since 1909, there have only been two winners from this draw, Greek Money (1962) being the other. There aren’t always enough runners to fill up stall 10, so we can’t be too harsh, but it certainly wouldn’t be the best result to be drawn too wide, according to the stats.
Who to bet in the 2022 Preakness?
The stats suggest a middle draw is perfect, and if your Preakness Stakes fancy is drawn there, you can feel confident. In the last half century, 31% have come from either stall 6 or 7.
Drawing stall 10 is a concern, and despite a recent surge in form, it still doesn’t feel particularly lucky being in 1 or 2.
With my neck on the line, based on the stats, I’d like to be holding a ticket for stall 7.