The One Play Wants You to Make on Preakness Day at Pimlico

Profile Picture: James Scully

May 14th, 2015

We’re taking a strong stand with Blame Jim in Saturday’s 10th race at Pimlico, the $100,000 Chick Lang Stakes. The 10th race kicks off the late Pick 4 that offers a $1.5 million guaranteed pool and concludes with the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes.

Using the Ultimate Past Performances as our tool, Blame Jim has several things going for him.

The gelding recorded a 104 BRIS Speed rating when posting a sharp four-length victory at Parx Racing last time out, the top number for any of the 11 horses entered.

The BRIS Track Bias/Post Position Statistics show inside speed to be golden in six-furlong sprints at Pimlico, with horses winning wire to wire at a 33% clip and at a 22% win rate from the rail post. As evidenced by his BRIS Early Pace ratings and running lines, Blame Jim brings early speed to the equation from his favorable innermost post position.

Connections are another advantage. BRIS Trainer Stats reveal that Todd Pletcher wins at 29% with horses that captured their last start and he’s combined to hit at a 36% rate with jockey John Velazquez over the last 60 days (16-for-44).

Blame Jim’s BRIS numbers have increased nicely in all three sprint starts – his improving form only adds to the appeal.

A six-furlong specialist, with his lone poor performance from four career starts coming around two turns in the Gotham Stakes, Blame Jim’s produced two convincing wins and a good second to stablemate Stanford, who would tower over this field if entered.

The BRIS numbers are in Blame Jim’s favor.

Preakness Overview

American Pharoah will start from the rail in the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes and after stalking the pace three wide in the Kentucky Derby, he could change tactics and be sent to the front from his inside post.

The talented colt easily ranks first in BRIS Prime Power (159.5), with stablemate and Kentucky Derby third-placer Dortmund (155) second and Derby runner-up Firing Line (152) third.

The BRIS numbers show a huge drop-off between the top three and the rest of the field.

Dortmund ranks first via Back Speed (top BRIS Speed figure), earning a 106 for his Santa Anita Derby victory. American Pharoah (102) comes next followed closely by Firing Line (101).

In terms of BRIS Current Class, Firing Line (122.8) holds the advantage over Dortmund (122.3) and American Pharoah (120.9).

Many fans are expecting to see American Pharoah capitalize upon his Kentucky Derby success at Pimlico and it will be no surprise to see him wearing the Black-Eyed Susan garland in the winner’s circle.

But supporters of Dortmund and Firing Line can take confidence from the fact little separates the top three contenders based on numbers.