The One Play Wants You to Make on the Belmont Stakes Day program

Profile Picture: James Scully

June 4th, 2015

Using the industry’s best source of past performance data as our instrument, the Ultimate PPs, Condo Commando will win Saturday’s Acorn Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard.

Carded as the 7TH race, the Acorn features three-year-old fillies at a one-turn mile distance and Condo Commando’s attributes are easy to spot in the 12-horse field.

Condo Commando easily tops the field in BRIS Prime Power, seven points better than her closest rival (152-145).

With BRIS E1 Pace ratings of 110 and 109 in her last two starts, Condo Commando will be the one to catch on the lead. In fact, she looms as the commanding speed given the lower Early Pace numbers of her foes, with a strong possibility she’ll get clear early and roll home to a convincing victory.

According to BRIS Track Bias Stats, 25% of the one-mile races this meet have been won wire to wire. And given how tracks tend to play speed-favoring on big race days, Condo Commando figures to have the right run style on Saturday.

I love quality speed cutting back in trip and the Grade 1-winning Condo Commando, who also counts a pair of Grade 2 victories on her resume, should relish the turn back after stretching out too far in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks.

The Kentucky Oaks featured more speed than the Acorn and Condo Commando had no difficulty making the lead from the starting gate, serving as the pacesetter until running out of gas in the latter stages.

Condo Commando should be eager to make amends after having a three-race win streak snapped last time and shows a series of encouraging works in preparation for Rudy Rodriguez, who wins at a 25% clip in graded stakes starts.

And regular rider Joel Rosario knows speed is his mount’s best weapon – he will be sending Condo Commando from the break.

Listed at 4-1 on the morning line, Condo Commando looks ready to assert her superiority in the Acorn.