The ‘Real’ Derby Record of Today’s Top Trainers
(Click on image to enlarge)
So, using the results obtained from the chart above, I thought it might be interesting to look at how Todd Pletcher and other top trainers performed in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. Primarily, I looked at two things:
1) The average expected Form Rating compared to the average actual Form Rating.
2) The number of times the trainer’s Derby entrants performed better than expected compared to the number of times they performed worsethan expected.
The results of this study were illuminating.
Not only do we find that Todd Pletcher’s Louisville ledger is, indeed, dreadful (just 23 percent of his entrants performed better than their odds suggested), but look who’s at the top of the heap — Dale Romans, a guy who has yet to visit the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle.
Romans has saddled four Derby runners in his career and only Sharp Humor in 2006 ran worse than the tote board predicted.
Meanwhile, Pletcher can take solace from the fact that, when it comes to Derby disappointments, no one comes close to Bill Mott. In addition to being 0-for-7 in the big race, Mott’s charges have recorded just a two percent average Form Rating, despite a 21 percent expectation.