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Homeracing

The Red Mile Blazes With Classic Stakes Featuring Divisions’ Stars With Action For Profit-Hunters On Final Weekend

Profile Picture: Frank Cotolo

October 4th, 2018

 

The Grand Circuit’s penultimate weekend of stakes before the best of the best head for the Pocono Mountains is the focus of some traditional late-season stakes involving all major divisions at the Red Mile. The action includes the classic Kentucky Futurity featuring divisions for colts and fillies, and other classic events on Sunday, Oct. 7.

NOTE: A special addendum blog will be posted on Saturday night-Sunday morning, Oct. 6, in order to cover the Red Mile’s Sunday program highlighted by the Kentucky Futurity races. We will also have updates on Twitter @FrankCotolo as the program ensues. So we may review all of the week’s action from TwinSpires harness, we will be posting our Weekly Update on late Sunday evening, Eastern Time.

In the Midwest there are Indiana Sires Stakes (ISS) finals that also punctuate the concluding weeks of state stakes season. We are on top of the action again, offering many of the betting opportunities you will not get anywhere else in print or online.

The Breeders Crown Countdown (BCC) handles Grand Circuit frosh-colt trotters’ International Stallion Stakes on Thursday.

Spot-wagers are included in our horses-to-watch list (H2W). Explore any and all horses we post for use in wagers of your discretion. Do your own handicapping and then consider any and all our H2W and frosh selections.

COLTS ON FIRE

The Indiana Sires Stakes Final ($75,000) for soph-colt trotters is the highlight at Hoosier on Oct. 4 with 10 of the state’s best earning berths. The Yoders’ Katkin American comes to post with the top earning log but Admiral Dewey’s six wins in 15 starts will drive some bettors his way. Many for his nine checks collected in 13 starts will also consider Got The Groove.

In the mix for us is Lion Safari AS, who has gotten seven checks in 10 starts, six split between wins and places. This is a perfect spot for a perfect trip, which could include a faster win than he has already recorded.

COLT STAKES

Friday, Oct. 5, a quintet of ISS divisions gather a herd of frosh-filly trotters into fields worth $60,000 plus each. Let’s look at each test.

The first ISS split has seven at the gate. Though the top winner thus far is Southwind Storm, there are bigger money-winners to her inside. The most notable to us is Stone In Love. Chris Beaver’s filly is by Wishing Stone, who has surprised many as a stallion. She may be worth more than expected, a good deal, a good bet.

Two fillies we backed last week show up in the field of the second ISS. Of the two, we will go once again with the Millers’ Special Honor. Last week’s loss was unexplainable, she just got beat, but she is the top offering here, followed by Starita. They should both be at the wire when it counts.

Linda Toscano’s Global Pageant is in a good spot to beat the probable favorite, Jimmy Takter’s Susy, and with wagers also going to Fate Smiled and Evident Beauty, Global Pageant is the key to value here. Toscano’s stock is often misrepresented in the pools and this is a perfect example.

Fourth on the ISS menu is a field of eight that could be more competitive than the majority of bettors arrange in odds. Takter’s Whispering Oaks will get the brand bets with six-digit earnings already but outsider Lindy Pearl has only the 8 hole to overcome. Dom Cecere’s filly is two for six, while the other seven have raced more and may already have each peaked.

The last of the five ISS splits will herald The Ice Dutchess once again as the overwhelming favorite. There are other very good fillies here, though, and no one could argue if you found value in any of them. Perhaps Could Nine Fashion, six for six, will ease the pounding of bets for “Ice” but that could only make others more valuable as contenders.

We will take stock, again, in a Cecere filly—Taylor Swiftly. She is lightly raced and has the credentials to improve. She is a Trixton filly out of a good mare and has not been off the board in five starts, including three wins.

FILLY STAKES

The ISS series on Oct. 5 offers frosh-filly pacers to represent themselves in four splits worth $60,000-plus each. Here, as with the colts, some horses are racing for the second week at The Red Mile, coming off of Bluegrass Stakes.

The competition is tight in the first ISS round for the gals. One of our winners, Renaissance Lady K, is here against a bit tougher from her Bluegrass field. This week we will wave our support for “K” and look for Annie Hill for the value. We suspect she may not be in the top three of the public choices, awarding her poor odds for her good chances.

The second ISS field also looks tough, even if it isn’t wagered as such. Zero Tolerance is on fire now and bettors know it, like it and will bet on the flames to continue here. She may have tougher foes in Warrawee Ubeaut and Queen Of The Pride, for sure, and bettors will notice them, too. This leaves a promising outsider (in odds and post) to us bargain hunters. That filly is Beautyonthebeach. Never out of the money in nine starts, with five wins, she deserves to be equal in the betting with two of the aforementioned probable favorites—but she won’t be, allowing us to get a great price.

The penultimate ISS for the pacing gals on Oct. 5 has seven blue bloods led by Tony Alagna’s Treacherous Reign. Burke also sends St Somewhere (who was second for us last week). This is yet another tightly matched bunch in records if not earnings, so an outside contender could surface as the wagering becomes lopsided with a focus on one or two fillies. Brian Brown’s Margret Hill may be overlooked to a fault here. Her record and earnings are good but may be dismissed by comparison to the obvious brand names.

The last of the pacers’ ISS tests seven more strong fillies that are among the division’s best, including Tall Drink Hanover and Sylph Hanover, who are poised to take most of the win pool cash. If you wish not to pass this one, go with us again as we back High Reward, trusting last week’s Bluegrass effort was not all she has to give.

INDIANA FINALS

Top Midwestern frosh divisions are featured at Hoosier on Friday, Oct. 5 in $75,000 sires stakes finals. First on tap is the frosh-colt pace, where two sired by Rockin Image have strong reasons to do better than their best because they are eligible to the Crown. Beyond the fact that their sire makes them eligible, the pair—Pure Rock and Rockie Got Framed—has not performed well locally. The former has one win in 10 starts and the latter is still a maiden. Here they would have to win big for their connections to go to Pocono.

Form reversals aside, the Crown pair has to put up with Outloud, Ima Real Ladys Man, Always A Vavoom and Egomania, all substantially more productive in the program. Ima Real Ladys Man is our choice from the top few. He is as fast and as classy as the others but may get the short end of the betting public behind him, providing strong value.

Ten are set for the $75,000 frosh-filly trot final. Measuredperfection, who has eight of 11 across the board finishes with four wins, should pick up favorite status for Burke but we have an outside contender in Sophia Lia. Chris Beaver’s filly by Guccio should offer a decent price for a mild upset price.

Lastly, the $75,000 frosh-filly pace will have tons of money on Glorious Virgin and her seven wins for nine starts, earnings, rail post, home-favorite driver, breeding and trainer (Brian Brown). It seems her only foe is the other Brown entries, Pure Maid and Lady Capulet. Any hopes for an upset rest upon the performance of Tellitsassymae, who will be dismissed and go off at odds unmatched by her chances.

FILLIES EN FORCE

Saturday, Oct. 6, The Red Mile presents two- and three-year-old pacers; colt youngsters and filly sophomores. A pair of Tatersalls events for the latter is each worth over $111,000. The first appears a walkover for Wisdom Tree. She has 11 wins for 14 starts, unfettered by any other in her division.

Dance Blue, trained by Nancy Johansson, is a late-season threat to Wisdom Tree and is our choice here. Considering how heavily the public will back Wisdom Tree and its support for I’m Trigger Happy, Dance Blue should have limited backing.

The second Tattersalls matches the division’s top three once more before the Crown. Youaremycandygirl, Kissin In The Sand and Alexa’s Power leave the other five in the field wrestling for fourth place and beyond. If you care not to pass this contest, take a shot on Alexa’s Power. She is apt to have a spot that could offer the best route to victory if the other two duel.

AGED FOR ALLERAGE

Also on Oct. 6, aged trotters and pacers are featured in The Allerage Farms opens. There are seven trotters, all familiar to the harness bettor, in the male category ($145,000). It’s a tight fit, though the public should make Will Take Charge a soft favorite. We feel this is a good place and time for Pinkman to win a major stake, He’ll be higher odds than the probable favorites and is worth the investment.

The pacers’ Allerage ($179,000) match McWicked and Lazarus N again, along with the usual also-paced suspects. Our opinion that McWicked and the U.S. division is inherently better than the Australian “Wonder” remains intact. This race may prove it with a horse other than McWicked beating Lazarus N. That division member is the lightly raced Heaven Rocks A from Ross Croghan. This cast of characters is rife for an upset such as this and it will pay well, even if the major two are involved in exotics.

INTERNATIONAL SOPHS

Filling the Oct. 6 program are International Stallion Stakes for the frosh-colt pacers ($60,000-plus each). In the interest of space, we offer brief comments on our contenders in the five ISS splits in order of their appearance on the program

Workin Ona Mystery may wind up a third or fourth choice based upon his post and the presence of Rock Candy and Lyons Johnnyjnr, so the four wins for as many starts gets our vote.

Captain Trevor, the sole son of Captaintreacherous in the second ISS split, is in a good spot to beat probable favorite Blood Money.

Captain Ahab, on his best day, leaves these in the dust, though not for a big price. Bettors, act accordingly.

Captain Victorious surprised most bettors, but not us, last week with a juicy-price place and he should offer a good price to win again here, against obvious choices.

Mangogh may be avoided by bettors so this Western Ideal product from the Burke barn is worth the investment.


 H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last) time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W LIST

Batavia
10/5/18, Dwntwnskeeterbrown R7
10/6/18, Pick Six R1; +Barry Hanover R5; +Noble Legend R8

Dayton
10/5/18, Jimtastic R9; It’s A Miracle R10
10/6/18, +Modern Rock AS ae R8

Flamboro
10/4/18, The Bay Front R5; Tenor Duharas R7; Regally Magnifield R9

Freehold
10/5/18, Climate Change R1; Livinginthedream R6

Harrington
10/8/18, +Daiymir R5; +Jigtime Jones R7

Meadows
10/6/18, +The Muscle Dog ae R1; +Venier Hanover R8

Monticello
10/4/18, +Ladys Bag Man R2; Colonial Road R4

Philly
10/4/18, Classy Guy R3; Commander Paris N R9

Plainridge
10/4/18, +Rock The Heavens R1; Pops Pool Room R7; Jackson’s Image R8; +Ramblin Art R10

Pocono
10/6/18, +Meant Tobe Shooter R3

Red Mile
10/4/18, Abidora R3; Katkin And Coke R4

Saratoga
10/4/18, Financial Impact R3; Duluth R5

Vernon
10/6/18, Upto A Dream R2; Stonebridge Bonus R5

Yonkers
10/5/18, +Feel The Need A R7
 

 

 

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