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Homeracing

The three horses you shouldn’t leave off your Portland Meadows 0% Takeout Pick 5 ticket

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

November 18th, 2014

TwinSpires.com and Portland Meadows have teamed to offer a special promotion today (and every Tuesday this year) whereby if you hit the $.20 Pick 5 at the Oregon track then you will receive a bonus (up to $500/day) that mitigates takeout.

It’s a challenging sequence today with two ten-horse fields, a nine-horse field, and a pair of eights for 57,600 combinations, and while I only plan to use about a quarter percent of those available combos below are the three horses (at an expected price!) I absolutely won’t be leaving off my tickets.

Race 6 (leg 1):

#8 Bad as Can Be makes his second start off a 9 ½-month layoff and switches from 11% rider Marcelo Cardoso to the more regular Javier Matias, a 20% journeyman who won aboard this gelding when on him during the 2013-2014 season. The outside post and closing style is a concern, but at 10-to-1 morning line the back figures are strong enough to warrant inclusion

Race 8 (Leg 3)

#6 Queens Peg rises up to $3,200 open claimers after airmailing against the $2,500 conditioned last out, but what sets that race apart is that it was her first at a mile, and she caught a fast track, and both those variables are in play again today, which makes her a play at 6-to-1 morning line.

Race 9 (leg 4)

#7 Tiz I Is has similar profile to the aforementioned Queens Peg in that he’s going up in class off a big win. I like playing lower level horses to run right back to a big figure even when rising in class (especially potent first time against winners), so at the 8-to-1 morning line I’ll gamble that this one can fire another mid-upper 80s Speed Rating.

OVERALL STRATEGY: The most likely winner of the sequence is #2 Taxi in the nightcap (race 10, leg 5) so getting live to him is a primary goal. Normally I wouldn’t be over the moon about singling a big favorite in a $.20 bet (even a Pick 5), but with three races where I have a good case for a potential $15 horse I’d rather gamble that one of them wins than a very likely winner loses.

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