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Homeracing

This Week's Lucky 7s Down Under Worth $3,000

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TwinSpires Staff

April 3rd, 2014

The $1.4 million BMW Stakes (click for PPs) is a re-run of the Ranvet Stakes (G1) two weeks ago. Last time out, the Queen’s CARLTON HOUSE opened up a gigantic lead and was run down late by SILENT ACHIEVER with none of the others making up any significant ground.

That was going ten furlongs and now they go 12 furlongs for the big money. IT’S A DUNDEEL sat behind the pacesetters in the Ranvet and raced on kind of one-paced to the wire to get third. It was his second start off the layoff and now looks primed for a big effort going the classic distance. In his lone start at this distance, he won the ATC Australian Derby (G1) by six lengths going right-handed at Randwick last April. He does his best racing when he drops off the pace and should be fit and ready for a big effort.

The last two winners of the Melbourne Cup (G1) show up here and the 12 furlongs should help them. FIORENTE showed two starts back in the ten-furlong Australian Cup (G1) that he is not just a marathoner but is a bit of a question mark when he runs right-handed. Gai Waterhouse trains at Randwick but most of his big wins have come down in Victoria going left-handed.

The value horse in here could be FORETELLER. He was a sharp third behind the two Melbourne Cup horses two starts back but then lost all chance last out when squeezed at the start in the Ranvet. His second in the Caulfield Cup (G1) last October puts him in the running here.

Lucky 7’s strategy: $7 to win on It’s a Dundeel. $7 exacta It’s a Dundeel over Fiorente and Foreteller.  

Pari-Mutuel wagering strategy: If I could get 2 to 1 on It’s a Dundeel, all my bets would be for him to win. Since Foreteller might be a decent price, an exacta box of It’s a Dundeel, Fiorente and Foreteller.

The Vinery Stud Stakes is for 3YO fillies going ten furlongs and all carry 123 pounds. RISING ROMANCE raced in New Zealand behind PUCCINI who collapsed in the stretch last out here in the Rosehill Guineas (G1) after battling for the lead on a testing surface. She has a bit of a hoof problem and will wear a pad on her right-front. She beat fillies easily in a group one going this distance and then raced against males her last two starts.

ZANBAGH is the betting favorite in the early markets but will wear bar plates on her front feet. She will have to overcome an impossible post position but at least shows a five-length win on a heavy track in her lone start at this distance.

INTERSPERSED has a huge late kick and stretches out beyond a mile for the first time. Kerrin McEvoy picks up the mount and she draws well for this.

Lucky 7’s strategy: $7 win Interspersed and $7 exacta Rising Romance and Zanbagh over Interspersed.

Pari-Mutuel wagering strategy: Box Interspersed, Rising Romance, Zanbagh and Forever Loved in a trifecta.  

The $3.2-million Golden Slipper (G1) is the richest juvenile race in the world and attracted 16 2YOs going six furlongs. The post position draw was brutal for UNENCUMBERED, EARTHQUAKE, ELOPING, MEMORIAL and BELIEVE YOURSELF. No Slipper winner has won from as far out as gate 13 and Earthquake might break from post 12 if SCRATCH ME LUCKY does not run. Plus, Earthquake had a fever earlier this week and has been treated with anti-biotics.

I was really impressed by BRING ME THE MAID last week when she passed 12 horses in the stretch to win going away at six furlongs over a heavy track against group two company. Fillies have won four of the last ten Slippers and she draws well today. Her sire, SEBRING, won the Slipper, and will be flying late.

MOSSFUN chased EARTHQUAKE last out in the Reisling Stakes (G2) and was a game second. She won her prior two starts here against group company and draws inside of EARTHQUAKE who will have to send from his wide post.

Lucky 7’s strategy: $7 win/place/show on Bring me the Maid.

Pari-Mutuel wagering strategy: Win and place on Bring me the Maid and a trifecta box with Bring me the Maid, Earthquake, Mossfun and Ghibellines.

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