Thoughts on multi-race betting strategies for Breeders' Cup Saturday
With no Pick 5 available, bettors concentrating their multi-race play solely on Saturday's eight Breeders' Cup races will have to make do with the Pick 6, two Pick 4s, plus the customary rolling Doubles and Pick 3s.
The first Pick 4 starts in the Turf Sprint (G1), where Lady Aurelia figures to be a single on a lot of tickets. Beat her to start, and the dollar signs will begin dancing in your head. I think she's more likely to win than not, and throw in the strong possibility of Lady Eli and Drefong winning later in the sequence and you're facing the prospect of the bet chalking out (especially if Unique Bella comes through, too.)
A Pick 4 chalking out on Breeders' Cup Day is probably better than on a conventional day with the size of the pool, but the late Pick 4, which starts in the Mile (G1), might be the better wager in that respect. One of the top choices could come through in the Mile, but won't be nearly as short a price as Lady Aurelia would be. Bolt d'Oro is a natural single, and Highland Reel perhaps might be, too, with the unfortunate scratch of Ulysses. If you absolutely need to cover all bases in the Classic, going three or four deep should suffice.
Stealthily attacking the rolling Pick 3s and Doubles, especially if you can get a longer price in the first leg, is a viable strategic option. While my confidence level concerning top selections Caledonia Road in the Juvenile Fillies (G1) and Finest City in the Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) can hardly be described as strong, I don't like the favorites in either race, thus I'll be using a few other fillies as backup in those legs with Lady Aurelia as my single in the Pick 3 sequence that starts in the Juvenile Fillies.
The $2 minimum Pick 6 is generally beyond the reach of most players, especially on a Breeders' Cup Day, but if the form holds today, which it seems to have a much better chance of doing than recent Breeders' Cups, it might be worth chasing. Opinions will vary on how many strong singles there are and which ones they are, but from this viewpoint there could be as many as three in Lady Eli, Bolt d'Oro, and now Highland Reel.
Turning a Pick 6 into a Pick 3 or 4 would sound good to most players, even if the $2 base is a little high. The budget conscious can always grab a partner or two for additional comfort. Even if no horse in the entire sequence pays more than, say, 6-1, the pool size should guarantee a strong return on a relatively low investment.
In addition to my flyers on Caledonia Road and Finest City, my main Win bets of the day will be on World Approval (Mile) and West Coast (Classic).
You can check out my top three selections and those of my TwinSpires colleagues, plus my wagering strategy for the Classic, at the TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Betting Guide.
Good luck to all!