Thoughts on the Fantasy Stakes Day late Pick 5
The penultimate day of the 2020 Oaklawn Park meet on Friday is headlined by the Fantasy (G3), a relative blockbuster featuring many of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country. Here's a look at how I'll be playing the Late Pick 5 that covers Races 6-10.
Second-time starters #4 HIGH PROOF (20-1) and #10 ONAWAY (5-2) exit key races in which the top three finishers from both all won next out. High Proof's in particular was strong, yielding the stakes types Gold Street and Major Fed.
A couple first-time starters also bear watching. #9 SUPER CONSTITUTION (8-1) is by a 24% debut sire and out of the terrific Louisiana-bred mare Superior Storm, who placed in the Apple Blossom (G1). #12 INIS GLUAIRE (3-1) is a Bernardini half-brother to a Woodbine Oaks winner and is out of a Canadian champion turf mare.
Race 7 -- Arkansas Breeders' Championship
#3 K J'S NOBILITY (5-2) was a close second in this race last year and enters on a two-race win streak at this level. #9 BANDIT POINT (10-1) wasn't far behind that rival in this event 12 months ago, and both he and #1 PROMISING SHOES (5-1) are capable of better dropping in class from a tough open-company allowance.
Race 8 -- Gardenia S.
This newly-created stakes, sort of a Fantasy consolation, can go the way of #10 ANTOINETTE (8-1), whose morning line seems a little inflated considering she ran a fine third to Bonny South in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) on Mar. 21 following a spell dating to early December. That form looks comparatively strong in this field and she has room to improve in her second start of the season.
Race 9 -- Fantasy (G3)
Taking a stand against likely favorite #2 Venetian Harbor, who dominated a very weak renewal of the Las Virgenes (G2) and could see more pace pressure here.
Reigning juvenile filly champion #10 BRITISH IDIOM (5-2) ran into a streaking Finite in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) in February, but should strip fitter for this one. #7 SHEDARESTHEDEVIL (12-1) narrowly missed to stablemate Bonny South in an allowance two back and will be underrated here off a local win in the Honeybee (G3). She's much improved since joining the Brad Cox barn. #5 HARVEY'S LIL GOIL (12-1) has a terrific pedigree, by American Pharoah and from the female family of dual classic winner and champion I'll Have Another. Has been out three months, but showed herself to be a filly on the rise at Aqueduct over the winter.
#8 LA CHANCLA (4-1) back sprinting after a dull effort going two turns in the Charles Town Oaks (G3) last fall. Saratoga allowance winner last summer battles some hardened veterans here, but has upside for Team Asmussen. #6 SPEND SPEND SPEND (7-2) haltered by Baltas at Del Mar last summer from a fairly rapid effort in an optional claimer. Has run well in the past off an even longer layoff.
Here's the 50-cent ticket:
4,9,10,12 with 1,3,9 with 10 with 5,7,10 with 6,8 = $36