Three horses to single in Turfway's $18,713 Single 6 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

March 3rd, 2021

The Single 6 jackpot at Turfway Park is slowly but steadily accumulating, so the local racing week kicks off on Wednesday with $18,713 in the pool.

There’s also a $4,501 carryover in the Super Hi 5 up for grabs, so let’s dig right in and examine the evening action.

Saturday recap

The most recent day of racing at Turfway saw only two favorites visit the winner’s circle, both as part of the Single 6 sequence. When the dust settled, winning Single 6 bettors enjoyed a 20-cent payoff of $4,162.40, well above the $2,440.15 generated by a theoretical $2 win parlay across the six winners.

Overall, the track seemed fair on Saturday. Eight races saw three pacesetters, three pace trackers, and two deep closers visit the winner’s circle.

Wednesday preview

With 77 horses entered across the Single 6, bettors will have to ponder an average of 12.8 runners per race and a total of 3,995,264 possible outcomes. It’s a formidable task at first glance, though if you dig a little deeper, the sequence starts to look more manageable.

After all, we noted in our Picks and Plays for Mar. 3 that #10 La Isadora (3-1) in Race 5 and #1 Burning Bright (9-5) in Race 6 bring formidable credentials to the table, stamping them as logical singles at short prices. If you’re willing to take a stand with both, you’ll eliminate more than 99% of possible Single 6 outcomes and reduce the number of possibilities down to a more manageable 35,672.

But wait, you can reduce the challenge a step further if you’re also willing to single #9 Oak Room (1-1) in Race 8, a $5,000 maiden claimer held over one mile. Trained by Mike Maker, Oak Room was beaten just half a length when competing for a $7,500 tag over this course and distance two months ago, earning a 78 Brisnet Speed rating, None of his rivals have ever surpassed the 75 mark, a plateau Oak Room has exceeded on three occasions.

Oak Room has tactical speed, so he figures to work out a clean trip under jockey Rafael Bejarano, who wins at a solid 24% rate when teaming up with Maker. Singling three horses in a competitive Pick 6 might seem like a risky strategy, and maybe it is. But if you’re willing to take the stand, you’ll cut the number of possible outcomes down to just 2,548, a number so small you could play them all for just $509.60.

In other words, you’ll be able to spread pretty deep in the remaining three races and still play the Single 6 on a reasonable budget. Plus, Oak Room is the perfect horse to key on top in the Super Hi 5, giving you a chance to hit two carryover paydays at once.

Good luck!