Tipsheet: Rebel Stakes

Profile Picture: Dick Powell

March 12th, 2020

The $1 million Rebel (G2) will be run Saturday as race 10 at Oaklawn Park.  The 1 1/16-mile race is for 3-year-olds and is part of the 2020 Road to the Kentucky Derby series with 50-20-10-5 points going to the top four finishers. The huge purse drew a field of eight, but only two of them have raced here before.

Top Picks for the Rebel

  • #6 Three Technique
  • #1 Nadal
  • #3 Basin
  • #5 No Parole

Betting the Rebel

  • $40 win: 6
  • $5 exacta: 1,3 with 6

Rebel Contenders

#1 Nadal sold for $700,000 as a two-year-old in training last year and looked good when he broke his maiden first time out going 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita in fast time. He came back to win the San Vicente (G2) going seven furlongs as the 3-10 favorite. The son of Blame stretches out to two turns for Bob Baffert, who wins at 28% with this move.

#2 Excession took five starts to graduate and was outrun in graded-stakes company at the Fair Grounds in his last two starts. He might develop into a decent colt in the future, but he just doesn’t appear to be fast enough in here.   

#3 Basin hasn’t been seen since he won the Hopeful (G1) on a sloppy Saratoga track last September. Off for 194 days, he returns for his two-turn debut off two months of solid work at the Fair Grounds for Steve Asmussen. Javier Castellano is the perfect rider to get him to relax early and finish strong.

#4 Silver Prospector came back to win the Southwest (G3), racing close to a fast pace, after an even effort over a muddy track at Oaklawn two starts back. The multiple graded stakes-winning son of Declaration of War has been training nice and easy for Asmussen, which usually means that they are ready.  

#5 No Parole is not only 3-for-3, but has won them by almost a combined 30 lengths. Even against Louisiana-breds, he has shown a world of talent and will probably gun to the front with Joe Talamo. His last two workouts were brilliant, and he is so fast that he might be left alone on the lead.

#6 Three Technique is a colt that attracted more attention than he should have since he is owned by Bill Parcells. He got it together third time out when he broke his maiden going 7-furlongs at Saratoga in faster time than the Hopeful was run a few days later. Off for almost three months, he crushed allowance foes at Aqueduct then was a good second behind a runaway winner here in the Smarty Jones. He’s been training here for almost three months and should be the strong horse in the stretch.

#7 Coach Bahe broke his maiden in an off-the-turf event on a muddy track at the Fair Grounds last out and moves way up in class with Lasix added. One-dimensional closer might sneak in for a piece of the pie.

#8 American Theorem looked great when he broke his maiden going 5 1/2 furlongs at the end of August at Del Mar. He came back with a good second last out in the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. The son of American Pharoah returns off the long layoff for George Papaprodromou, who wins 15% in this spot.

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