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Tiz the Law favored again in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6; Gamine tops Oaks Pool 2

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July 19th, 2020

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6

Kentucky Derby (G1) points leader Tiz the Law maintained his position at the top of the market in Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), closing as the 5-2 favorite Sunday evening.

The hero of the June 20 Belmont Stakes (G1), who was listed at 5-2 on the Pool 6 morning line, was nearly the same price (2.20-1) at the conclusion of Pool 5 that had run June 26-28. Tiz the Law’s enduring support in the KDFW, dating back to last November’s Pool 1, would likely hold through the final Pool 7 – if he continues his winning streak in the Aug. 8 Travers (G1). Pool 7 encompasses Travers weekend, running Aug. 7-9.

Honor A. P., last seen landing the June 6 Santa Anita Derby (G1), just clung to his status as the second betting choice at 6-1. His final Derby prep is expected to come in the Shared Belief at Del Mar Aug. 1.

Money came late for Bob Baffert’s late-developing Uncle Chuck, who also finished at 6-1 but not quite catching Honor A. P. A 13-1 shot in Pool 5 off his unveiling, he’d since advertised himself in the July 4 Los Alamitos Derby (G3). The Travers has been mentioned as a potential target, setting up a mouthwatering match-up with Tiz the Law at Saratoga. The alternative would be staying home to tangle with Honor A. P. in the Shared Belief.

Another enhancing his profile recently was Blue Grass (G2) romper Art Collector, the 8-1 fourth choice in Pool 6. He’d been 20-1 when making his KDFW debut in Pool 5.

Baffert’s Authentic saw his stock hit its peak in Pool 3 and subsequently slip a bit, thanks to the exploits of others and after his loss to Honor A. P. in the Santa Anita Derby. Authentic’s victory in Saturday’s Haskell (G1) helped him return to single-digit odds in Pool 6, closing at 9-1, but his narrow margin did little to address stamina concerns.

The option of “All Other 3-Year-Old Males” was its highest price so far (14-1) in the KDFW for Derby 146. Next in order came Baffert’s unbeaten Cezanne (18-1), a $3.65 million Curlin colt reportedly looking to make his stakes debut in the Shared Belief; hard-trying placegetter Ny Traffic (19-1), who nearly nailed Authentic in the Haskell; and Haskell third Dr Post (24-1), who found himself out of position early at Monmouth but was previously runner-up to Tiz the Law in the Belmont.

KDFW Pool 6Horse NameODDSGross Win Pool
1
Art Collector
8-1
$10,890.56
2
Attachment Rate
99-1
$978.92
3
Authentic
9-1
$9,653.02
4
Cezanne
18-1
$5,325.74
5
Dean Martini
37-1
$2,711.28
6
Dr Post
24-1
$4,001.20
7
Enforceable
38-1
$2,639.90
8
Honor A. P.
6-1
$14,735.92
9
King Guillermo
25-1
$3,896.34
10
Major Fed
90-1
$1,139.84
11
Max Player
25-1
$3,925.04
12
Modernist
96-1
$1,066.54
13
Mystic Guide
50-1
$2,018.06
14
Ny Traffic
19-1
$5,157.32
15
Pneumatic
87-1
$1,175.66
16
Rushie
99-1
$728.44
17
Shared Sense
42-1
$2,414.98
18
South Bend
99-1
$963.76
19
Storm the Court
88-1
$1,159.38
20
Thousand Words
65-1
$1,573.84
21
Tiz the Law
5-2
$28,273.64
22
Uncle Chuck
6-1
$13,110.08
23
All Other 3 Year Old Fillies
52-1
$1,926.14
24
All Other 3 Year Olds
14-1
$6,560.66

Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool 2

The added Pool 2 of the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager, that ran concurrently with Pool 6 Friday through Sunday, revealed just how significantly the fillies’ picture had changed since the prior pool of Mar. 6-8.

Baffert’s Gamine entered March unraced, and thus didn’t even warrant an individual interest in Pool 1. But the $1.8 million daughter of Into Mischief has rocketed to Oaks favoritism in just three starts, closing Pool 2 as the 2-1 choice. A sensational 18 3/4-length, stakes-record conqueror of the June 20 Acorn (G1), Gamine will shorten up to 7 furlongs for the Aug. 8 Test (G1), an unusual path to the 1 1/8-mile Oaks in this most unusual of years.

Swiss Skydiver was an individual option in Pool 1, but ignored as the 167.50-1 longest shot of them all. Needless to say, she commanded far more attention as the 9-2 second choice in Pool 2. Since soaring to the top of the Oaks points leaderboard with three straight wins, capped by the June 6 Santa Anita Oaks (G2), Swiss Skydiver made an historic run at the Blue Grass and placed second to Derby hope Art Collector. She’s a late nominee to the Triple Crown, but trainer Ken McPeek’s current plan is to revert to her own division.

The 10-1 third choice, Speech, was a newcomer to Pool 2 who scored a career high in the July 11 Ashland (G1) over Venetian Harbor. That result is a sign of the changing of the guard among Oaks contenders: Venetian Harbor had been the 4-1 individual favorite in Pool 1, but ballooned to 27-1 in Pool 2. Similarly, the mutuel field of “All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies,” the Pool 1 overall choice at 3-1, rose as high as 22-1 in Pool 2.

An even later revelation, Paris Lights (14-1), didn’t begin her career until deep in the spring, and just earned her Oaks credentials in a hard-fought Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) Saturday. Closing just behind Paris Lights, also at 14-1, was the more experienced Donna Veloce. Sidelined since beating Speech in the Mar. 8 Santa Ysabel (G3), Donna Veloce is on the comeback trail toward the Sept. 4 Oaks.

KOFW Pool 2Horse NameODDSGross Win Pool
1
Altaf
17-1
$1,570.90
2
Bayerness
91-1
$314.92
3
Bonny South
27-1
$1,027.92
4
Donna Veloce
14-1
$1,856.08
5
Dream Marie
92-1
$313.40
6
Envoutante
72-1
$396.18
7
Finite
24-1
$1,141.24
8
Gamine
2-1
$9,404.78
9
Harvey's Lil Goil
24-1
$1,134.82
10
Impeccable Style
99-1
$181.96
11
Mundaye Call
37-1
$756.48
12
Paris Lights
14-1
$1,873.04
13
Pleasant Orb
78-1
$369.10
14
Project Whiskey
97-1
$295.44
15
Queen of God
99-1
$228.40
16
Shedaresthedevil
19-1
$1,438.40
17
Speech
10-1
$2,440.22
18
Spice Is Nice
21-1
$1,294.98
19
Swiss Skydiver
9-2
$5,161.28
20
Tempers Rising
99-1
$164.96
21
Tonalist's Shape
19-1
$1,454.92
22
Venetian Harbor
27-1
$1,041.44
23
Water White
99-1
$270.62
24
All Other Three Year Old Fillies
22-1
$1,251.16

Complete details are available on the Future Wagers page on kentuckyderby.com, including exacta probables for KDFW Pool 6 and for KOFW Pool 2.

Total handle for KDFW Pool 6 was $191,346 ($126,026 in the Win pool and $65,320 in Exactas). The Oaks Future Wager attracted a total of $54,897 ($35,383 in the Win pool and $19,514 in Exactas). A total of $59,245 was bet on the Oaks/Derby Future Double by fans aiming to select the winners of both races.

One additional KDFW opportunity remains ahead of the Sept. 5 Derby, the aforementioned Pool 7 that spans the Aug. 7-9 weekend of the Travers and Ellis Park Derby.

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