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Homeracing

Top Three Have Separated Themselves From the Rest of Talented Derby Field

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TwinSpires Staff

April 17th, 2015

by LAURA PUGH

At the conclusion of the Championship Series of the Kentucky Derby Preps, it looks as if my prediction came to be.

On my last analysis of the current Derby Top Twenty I wrote “So, what can we expect in round three? I would say expect the top horses to further distance themselves, while seeing quite a few changes in the spots 15-20.” As you can see there have been several changes in the lower ranks, in fact there is a grand total of nine newcomers to the current top twenty.

All of the newcomers are well qualified to be in the gates of the Kentucky Derby, but ones that could have quite the impact are Ocho Ocho Ocho and Stanford. Both will likely be the main pace setters in the race, as Dortmund, Carpe Diem, and American Pharoah –all of which have natural speed of their own- will probably elect to sit just off of them.

Right now, the top three (the aforementioned “main pace setters” who also happen to be the likely top three betting choices) have really separated themselves from the pack. Their last preps were dominant and steps in the right direction. American Pharoah showed us that he isn’t a need the lead horse. Dortmund showed us he can blow his competition away just as easily as he can outfight them, and Carpe Diem got the conditioning he needed from his Blue Grass win.

As of now, if things can stay exactly as they are, and the horses stay healthy and sound, we are looking at one of the deepest and most competitive fields in recent history. Stay tuned for my final Derby top twenty piece, which I will reveal after the post positions are drawn.

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