Turfway Park: 3 favorites to oppose in the $19,680 Single 6 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

March 4th, 2021

Large, competitive fields are par for the course at Turfway Park. Just look at the results of Wednesday’s eight-race card, which produced multiple double-digit upsets and only one winning favorite.

The finale was particularly surprising, with 3-5 favorite Oak Room falling to defeat behind 7-1 shot Belushi Samurai. Runners starting at 33-1, 67-1, and 5-1 rounded out the top five, triggering an $11,019 Super Hi 5 carryover to complement the ever-increasing $19,680 Single 6 jackpot.

Thursday’s card is another competitive affair with an average of 12.6 horses entered in each of the eight races. The Single 6 kicks off as usual in Race 3 (post time 7:16 p.m. ET), while the Super Hi 5 carryover is up for grabs in Race 8 (post time 9:46 p.m. ET).

If you’re keen to ride the longshots bandwagon and aim for big payoffs, beating short-priced runners is the strategy to pursue. To help you get started, here are three vulnerable favorites worth opposing on Thursday’s card:

Race 3 (Maiden Special Weight): #11 Midway Mischief (3-1)

Midway Mischief might be the fastest runner in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, but son of Into Mischief is marooned in post 11, a distinct disadvantage in this one-mile heat. Horses drawn in outside posts tend to fare poorly in route races at Turfway; post 11 specifically has gone just 2-for-57 (3.5%) since the start of the year. Throw in the fact Midway Mischief flattened out in his route debut at Turfway last month, and there’s no guarantee he’ll see out Thursday’s distance while simultaneously enduring a wide trip.

Race 4 ($15,000 Claiming): #5 Screenwriter (3-1)

With six straight 81+ Brisnet Speed ratings under her belt, Screenwriter is the fastest horse in the field and clearly the runner to beat while dropping down from allowance to claiming company. But the daughter of Ghostzapper is just 1-for-18 lifetime with half a dozen runner-up efforts under her belt, suggesting she’s more inclined to settle for the minor awards than vie for victory. Throw in the fact Screenwriter is a late runner without much tactical speed, and she seems like a risky favorite to trust at a short price.

Race 7 (Allowance): #8 Pop a Choc (5-2)

Pop a Choc owns the fastest Brisnet Speed ratings in this 5 1/2-furlong dash, including the sharp 96 she posted when breaking her maiden at Belmont Park last summer. But the daughter of Bernardini has only run once since September, finishing fifth by a wide margin in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Fair Grounds. That was Pop a Choc’s second sound defeat in a row, and when you couple her disappointing recent form with the fact she’s never run over a synthetic track, Pop a Choc looks vulnerable while switching to the Tapeta course at Turfway.

Good luck!