Turfway Park: Chasing three mandatory-payout carryovers on closing day
Saturday is closing day of the winter/spring meet at Turfway Park, and there are three—yes, three!—carryovers slated for mandatory dispersal.
That’s a lot to keep track of, so let’s break it down:
- The 20-cent Pick 6 features a $28,580 carryover and gets underway in Race 4, post time 7:25 p.m. ET.
- The 50-cent Late Pick 5 boasts a $66,517 carryover and kicks off in Race 5 at 7:55 p.m. ET.
- The carryover for the $1 Super High 5 has climbed to $8,611 and is available to chase in Race 9, post time 9:55 p.m. ET.
What are mandatory-payout carryovers, and why are they valuable?— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) January 19, 2022
Let’s ask @j_Keelerman 👇https://t.co/y93l9aJ7Id
The difficulty of handicapping the races involved is almost off the charts. The Pick 6, for example, contains a staggering 3,302,208 possible outcomes before scratches. Anyone able to assemble a winning ticket ought to catch an enticing payoff.
The feature event on the lucrative card is Race 7, the Serena’s Song S. for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. Among the dozen entrants, #1 Bulsara (5-1) offers appeal at a price. She’s 2-for-3 over Tapeta, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight at Presque Isle Downs and a $50,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile at Turfway. The latter victory came by 1 1/2 lengths over Wet Paint, who has since developed into one of the favorites to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
Bulsara’s only defeat over Tapeta came in the one-mile Cincinnati Trophy S. at Turfway last month, in which she finished fourth behind Turfway sensation and next-out Bourbonette Oaks winner Botanical. Runner-up #9 Jill Jitterbug (10-1) and third-place finisher #12 B G Warrior (6-1) are back for the Serena’s Song, but cutting back to six furlongs may help Bulsara turn the tables. Trainer Michael Trombetta wins at a 20% rate with horses transitioning from routes to sprints, and there should be plenty of pace to enhance Bulsara’s late rally. She’s well worth using in the Pick 5 and Pick 6.
Another price play worth including is #9 Man With the Moves (12-1) in Race 6, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Tapeta. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for these conditions is 85, but the experienced entrants have been running far lower numbers as of late. Therefore, the four first-time starters in the field won’t have to be monsters to challenge for victory.
It can be tricky for inexperienced horseplayers to bet on maiden races filled with unraced horses. How is it possible to predict the performances of horses who have never run?@J_Keelerman is here to help ⤵️ https://t.co/9wjSr6vjBK— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) October 6, 2022
Man With the Moves offers appeal because he worked a bullet half-mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in :47 on March 22. Horses shipping in from Horseshoe Indianapolis fared well at Turfway during the Holiday meet, so at 12-1 Man With the Moves offers longshot appeal in the Pick 5 and Pick 6.
As for the Super High 5, Race 9 is a $15,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The distance is six furlongs on Tapeta, so the conditions should be suitable for #6 Undismayed (6-1) to fire a winning shot.
Some bettors might be skeptical to support Undismayed. The four-year-old gelding has only run once, employing pace-tracking tactics to win a $15,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway by a neck. The competition on Saturday is bound to be tougher.
Or is it? It turns out that $15,000 maiden claimer was deep. Runner-up Run for the Rose and fifth-place finisher Kick Rocks Kid returned to run one-two in a six-furlong dash over the same track and class level. And fourth-place finisher San Marco City subsequently stretched out over one mile to win a $15,000 maiden claimer at Turfway.
Undismayed beat a good field in his debut and is eligible to win again on Saturday. If he comes home on top at 6-1, we’ll be well on our way to cashing a lucrative Super High 5 payoff.